俄罗斯财政压力正在恶化。官方数据显示，今年前四个月预算赤字达5.9兆卢布，占GDP的2.5%，约为全年计划的50%超支；2025年全年赤字为5.6兆卢布。与此同时，经济部已将2026年GDP增长预测从1.3%下调至0.4%，且第一季经济已出现三年来首次萎缩。即使战争带来的油价上升也难以根本解决问题，因为油价需至少在每桶100美元以上维持一年，才能明显改善财政与经济。
在更长期看，俄罗斯的财政与产出结构都承受压力：军费近年约增加30%，而2026年与国防工业订单相关的部门只预计增长4%至5%。政府在1月至4月间总支出较去年同期增加近16%，国家采购支出更飙升41%；今年前两个月已动用约5000亿卢布国家福利基金。面对赤字，莫斯科正考虑对部分大宗商品生产商与银行征收暴利税，但高层仍未就削减国防或增加收入形成共识，最终决定权仍掌握在 Vladimir Putin 手中。
Senior Russian officials are split over war spending and the budget gap: the Finance Ministry and central bank have warned that the current defense path could dangerously widen the deficit and have proposed further cuts, while the Defense Ministry and some Kremlin figures argue military outlays must be protected because many businesses depend on defense contracts. The 2026 budget already anticipated a second-half funding hole of about 1.2 trillion to 1.5 trillion rubles, and the military’s shortfall this year could reach as much as 3 trillion rubles, or $36 billion.
Russia’s fiscal strain is worsening. Official figures show the budget deficit reached 5.9 trillion rubles in the first four months of the year, equal to 2.5% of GDP and about 50% above the full-year plan; the 2025 deficit finished at 5.6 trillion rubles. Growth prospects have also deteriorated: the Economy Ministry cut its 2026 GDP forecast from 1.3% to 0.4%, and the economy contracted in the first quarter for the first time in three years. Even the oil-price surge from the Middle East war is unlikely to fix the problem unless oil stays above $100 a barrel for at least a year.
Over the longer term, Russia’s fiscal and industrial balance is under pressure. Defense spending has risen by roughly 30% in recent years, while sectors tied to defense orders are now expected to grow only 4% to 5% in 2026. Government spending rose nearly 16% year on year in January–April, state procurement jumped 41%, and about 500 billion rubles were withdrawn from the National Wellbeing Fund in the first two months of the year. Moscow is weighing a windfall tax on some commodity producers and banks, but no consensus has emerged on whether to cut defense or raise revenue, and the final decision rests with Vladimir Putin.