2025年市场表现出乎意料地强韧：美股年初一度因关税与政治风险受挫，但企业盈余「火箭式」推升股市回到高位。以美元计，标普500年内约上涨16%；但对欧元投资者，因美元走弱，标普500换算报酬仅约3%。美元出现「自1970年代以来最差的年初表现」后才趋于稳定，凸显汇率对跨区配置的决定性影响。

美国仍是基准，但「不只美国在涨」：英国富时100年内表现比标普500高约3个百分点；西班牙股市约+45%，韩国约+50%。亚洲涨势与AI供应链高度绑定，新兴市场指数约10%权重在台积电等半导体；治理改革（特别是韩国）也被视为推升因素。华尔街对2026年偏乐观：标普500现约6,843，部分机构喊到2026年底7,500，甚至8,000。

主要风险集中在「AI估值」与「通膨/货币政策」：Nvidia市值约4兆美元，若回撤25%即蒸发约1兆美元，且主动与被动资金都难以回避。市场目前预期联准会可降息3–4次（每次0.25个百分点），但通膨若再起将破坏「财政+货币双宽松」的共识。另有制度与外溢风险：鲍尔预计5月交棒、新主席独立性受关注；日本长天期公债殖利率上行可能引发资金回流；英国30年期公债殖利率升至1998年以来高位；加密资产（含稳定币与零售杠杆）与短期美债、股市的连动可能放大波动。

Markets looked unusually resilient in 2025: after an April tariff scare, strong earnings drove equities to new highs. In USD terms the S&P 500 is up about 16% YTD, but for euro-based investors the same index returned only about 3% because the dollar weakened. FX became decisive, with the dollar having its worst start to a year since the 1970s before stabilising.

Performance was broad, not just US-led. The FTSE 100 beat the S&P 500 by about 3 percentage points; Spain rose roughly 45% and Korea about 50%. Much of Asia’s strength is tied to the AI supply chain—chipmakers, testing, and foundries—with TSMC about 10% of major EM equity indices. Wall Street’s 2026 targets are upbeat: from ~6,843 now, some see 7,500 and even 8,000 by end-2026.

Key downside risks cluster around an AI bubble and inflation/monetary policy. Nvidia is ~US$4tn; a 25% drop would erase ~US$1tn, and most managers are effectively forced to own it. Markets price 3–4 Fed cuts of 25bp, but renewed inflation would break the “fiscal + monetary nirvana” narrative as Powell is due to step aside in May. Other tail risks: Japan’s rising JGB yields and possible capital repatriation, UK 30-year yields at the highest since 1998, and crypto linkages (stablecoins/retail leverage) spilling into Treasuries and equities.