自2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，欧洲北缘对欧盟的舆论出现明显转向。冰岛定于8月29日举行是否重启入盟谈判的公投，反对党也推动挪威就入盟举行全民投票，显示两国政治议程快速收敛。

在冰岛，支持重启入盟的声音目前高于反对者，但仍有大量选民态度未定；挪威则仍以反欧盟为主，不过支持率已升至30%以上，明显高于2010年代长期低于20%的水平。冰岛在2012年前已完成欧盟35个入盟章节中的11项，而在其申请后，另一个候选国黑山却用了13年才完成这一路程，反映出冰岛谈判速度更快。

在欧盟入盟讨论中，核心争议集中于主权与规则影响：冰岛、挪威和列支敦士登通过欧洲经济区可进入单一市场，却缺乏制定规则的话语权；去年欧盟对含“铁合金”等钢铁产品加征关税，也说明其未处于关税同盟的保护之下。冰岛人口不足40万、是北约唯一没有常备军的成员国，在地缘政治风险与美方对北大西洋事务的高压背景下，许多人认为加入欧盟可提升议价能力并降低被迫接受外部压力的脆弱性。

Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, sentiment on Europe’s northern edge has shifted materially. Iceland is set for a referendum on 29 August to restart EU accession talks, while Norway’s opposition has pushed for a vote on joining, showing parallel political rethinking in both countries.

In Iceland, support for restarting accession is now higher than opposition, though a large bloc remains undecided; in Norway, Eurosceptics still form a plurality, but pro-EU support has risen to above 30%, compared with usually below 20% in the 2010s. After first applying in 2009, Iceland closed 11 of 35 negotiation chapters by 2012, in contrast with Montenegro’s 13-year negotiation pace for a similar step.

The trade-off is rule access versus sovereignty: Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein get single-market access through the EEA but little influence over Brussels-drafted rules, and last year’s EU tariffs on ferroalloys showed their exposure outside the customs union. With fewer than 400,000 people, NATO’s only member without an army, and growing Russian, Chinese and U.S. policy uncertainty in the Arctic, critics and supporters alike argue that EU membership could reduce vulnerability, though domestic Euroscepticism remains strong and the Icelandic Independence Party warns the EU would eventually force full rule alignment.

Source: Will the European Union’s next member come from the north?

Subtitle: Worried about trade and security, Iceland and Norway are warming to the EU

Dateline: 4月 02, 2026 12:22 上午 | REYKJAVIK