美国和伊朗之间关于延长至少60天停火协议的谈判陷入僵局，争端焦点在于伊朗要求释放其1000亿美元被冻结资产中的60亿至120亿美元，以及美国坚持要求伊朗放弃其超过400公斤的近武器级浓缩铀库存。这一争端反映了双方担心临时协议会演变成永久协议，从而使伊朗的核材料在经历之前的空袭后仍留在原地。

伊朗正面临严重的经济困境，冲突已导致100万人失业，并使5月份的同比通胀率达到77%，商品通胀率达到114%。虽然临时协议可以重新开放霍尔木兹海峡并释放数百艘滞留船只，但由于持续面临袭击威胁，航运商和保险商仍对重返波斯湾犹豫不决。

如果临时协议成为长期的现状，美国及其盟国将面临伊朗核能力的持续不确定性，而石油市场将仅能看到微乎其微的商品出口。最终，这种不稳定的休战可能会崩溃，迫使双方在今年晚些时候重回敌对状态。

Negotiations for a ceasefire extension of at least 60 days between America and Iran are stalled over Iran's demands for $6bn-12bn of its $100bn in frozen assets, and America's insistence that Iran yield its stockpile of over 400kg of near-weapons-grade uranium. The dispute reflects fears that an interim agreement will become permanent, leaving Iran's nuclear materials in place despite previous airstrikes.

Iran faces severe economic distress, with the conflict throwing 1 million people out of work and driving year-on-year inflation to 77% in May, and 114% for goods. While a temporary deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and free hundreds of stranded vessels, shippers and insurers remain hesitant to return to the Persian Gulf due to persistent threat of attacks.

If the interim deal becomes a long-term status quo, America and its allies face continued uncertainty regarding Iran's nuclear capabilities, while oil markets will see only a trickle of commodity exports. Ultimately, this unstable truce might collapse, forcing a return to hostilities later in the year.

Source: Even if America and Iran find an accord, don’t expect it to last

Subtitle: The Donald Trump Show could be back on air later this year

Dateline: June 4th 2026