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尽管中国国家主席习近平在去年底强调要协调促进消费与扩大投资以推动2026年的经济增长,但最新数据显示,中国在内需和投资两方面均面临困境。上个月零售额自2022年以来首次转为负增长,而今年前五个月的投资也同比下降了4.1%,显示出疫情后持久的消费者冷漠与经济疲软。

与此同时,房地产行业的持续低迷进一步打击了消费者信心,新房价格持续下跌。尽管出口在今年5月增长了19%,但强劲的出口加剧了与欧美等贸易伙伴的紧张关系。分析人士指出,高昂的输入成本和对低回报项目的削减也拖累了基础设施投资的增长。

经济学家指出,中国面临著摆脱传统投资驱动型增长模式的长期挑战,但在刺激消费方面缺乏有效的政策工具。虽然高层意识到了经济转型的必要性,但由于对传统投资模式的政治和心理依赖,实现这种长期转型依然步履维艰。

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Although Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the coordination of consumption and investment to drive growth for 2026 at the end of last year, latest data shows that China is struggling on both fronts. Retail sales turned negative last month for the first time since 2022, and investment fell by 4.1 percent in the first five months of the year compared to the same period in 2025, highlighting persistent consumer apathy and economic slowdown.

Meanwhile, the prolonged slowdown in the property sector has further sapped consumer confidence, with new home prices continuing to decline. Although exports rose by 19 percent in May, this buoyant export growth has inflamed trade tensions with partners like the US and the EU. Analysts also note that high input costs and cutbacks on low-return projects have dragged down infrastructure investment.

Economists point out that Beijing faces a long-standing challenge to transition away from its investment-led growth model, yet it lacks obvious policy tools to stimulate consumption. While top leadership recognizes the necessity of economic rebalancing, achieving this long-term shift remains difficult due to political and psychological dependence on the traditional investment model.
2026-06-20 (Saturday) · 2bedaf9a980c2881be31dae30e638ad826849c69