全球电梯巨头正在争取中国补贴，以更新数十万台老旧电梯，因内地楼市持续低迷抑制新增安装。官方称中国有约1,200万部电梯、电动扶梯和自动人行道，央视《人民日报》12月披露约110万部超过15年的设备存在“安全隐患”。由于15年通常是升级或更新门槛，Kone、美国Otis与瑞士Schindler均表示中国“现代化改造”业务正增长。Kone首席负责人Joe Bao称可现代化的电梯数量构成行业“下一轮超级增长周期”。

Kone称到2028年在中国每年将更换或升级40,000至60,000部电梯，较目前约20,000部明显上升；Otis表示其2025年“现代化”业务同比翻倍。Otis去年全球销售下滑7%，其中中国降幅超过五分之一；Schindler与Kone在华订单也受挫，Schindler称需求继续陡降，Kone称大中华区订单与2024年相比“显著下降”。

三家公司都把增长寄望于政府用长期专项债支持的补贴，补贴可用于更换老旧电梯与改造，新一轮已延伸至旧楼（约每台10万至20万人民币，约14,650至29,300美元）。市场竞争促使Kone在一周内交付更换，并推出包括金色按钮的新品；同时维护业务在高度分散市场中也被视为机会（Bao称由数千家本地企业主导）。Otis警告客户“信用条件”抑制其在华销售节奏，Bao则称其业务结构已由新安装85%、现代化15%转为约1比1，预期总销售将恢复并重回2021年高点。

Global elevator groups are racing to use Chinese subsidies to replace and retrofit hundreds of thousands of ageing lifts, as the country’s property slowdown continues to suppress new installations. Official figures put China at about 12 million elevators, escalators, and moving walkways, and People’s Daily reported in December that about 1.1 million were over 15 years old and posed safety hazards. Since 15 years is the usual upgrade threshold, Kone, US-based Otis, and Swiss Schindler all said their modernisation businesses are growing in China. Kone’s Joe Bao said the population of units needing modernisation is the industry’s next growth super cycle.

Kone said by 2028 it expected to replace or modernise 40,000 to 60,000 elevators in China each year, up from about 20,000 now; Otis said its 2025 modernisation tally had doubled year on year. Otis reported global sales fell 7 per cent last year, with China down by more than one-fifth. Schindler said orders were hit by a continued steep decline in demand, while Kone said its Greater China orders had also fallen significantly versus 2024.

All three firms are banking on a government scheme funded by long-term special bonds, with subsidies of about RMB100,000 to RMB200,000 (about US$14,650 to US$29,300) now available for replacing aging elevators, expanded to older buildings. Competition has pushed Kone to offer replacements within a week and promote new models such as its gold lift button, while maintenance is also seen as an opportunity in a fragmented market dominated by thousands of local players, as Bao said. Otis has warned that customer credit conditions have constrained its sales pace in China. Bao also said his business mix had shifted from 85% new installations and 15% modernisation to roughly an even split, and he expects total sales to eventually recover and return to the 2021 peak.