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日本股市在 2025 年创下亮眼表现:日经 225 指数年终收于 50,339 点、全年上涨 10,444 点,创历来最大年度涨点。市场将走势解读为日本经济由通缩转向通膨,以及 AI 带动的资本支出循环;首相高市早苗提出以提升供给能力为核心的成长策略,并指定包含 AI、造船等在内的 17 个重点投资领域,以强化经济安全并缓解供给瓶颈。

AI 资料中心需求带动制造业个股强势:Kioxia 股价全年飙升 540%,藤仓(Fujikura)因光纤需求上升而大涨 170%,三井金属(Mitsui Mining & Smelting)在扩产等动作下股价约翻四倍。供应链与战略专案亦受追捧,例如东洋工程股价约翻四倍、三井 E&S 上涨约三倍;政府并提及造船产业投资规模可达 1 兆日圆(约 64 亿美元),加上国防支出增加,也推升相关题材热度。

利率上行让金融股成为另一条主线:日本央行在 1 月与 12 月升息,政策利率由 0.25% 升至 0.75%,长期利率也在 19 年来首次突破 2%。银行股受惠于放贷利差改善,瑞穗金融上涨 47%,三大行集团市值合计约增加 1,000 亿美元,部分地区银行股价约翻倍;但风险仍在,包括关税压力、实质工资下滑,以及面向消费者企业「营收增、获利降」的利润挤压。

Japan’s Nikkei 225 ended 2025 at a record 50,339, up 10,444 points for its biggest annual rise, as investors priced a shift from deflation to inflation and an AI-led capex cycle. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi highlighted 17 priority investment areas (including AI and shipbuilding) aimed at easing supply constraints and strengthening economic security.

AI infrastructure demand lifted manufacturers: Kioxia surged 540%, Fujikura rose 170% on optical-fiber orders, and Mitsui Mining & Smelting roughly quadrupled after capacity-expansion moves. Supply-chain and strategic projects also rallied (Toyo Engineering roughly quadrupled; Mitsui E&S tripled), alongside talk of shipbuilding investment on the scale of 1 trillion yen ($6.4 billion) and stronger defense spending.

Rate normalization broadened the rally: the BOJ lifted the policy rate to 0.75% from 0.25% with hikes in January and December, while long-term yields topped 2% for the first time in 19 years. Banks benefited (Mizuho +47%; megabanks’ combined market value up about $100 billion, with some regional banks roughly doubling). Risks include tariffs, weak real wages, and consumers’ revenue gains but profit pressure.

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2025-12-31 (Wednesday) · 083d005711f45bda2a26b46e2fd00968a5e45e1d