“#ElBuenoEsHarfuch”的贴纸仍然出现在墨西哥城，源于奥马尔·加西亚·哈尔富奇2023年的市长竞选。在他担任城市治安主管的四年任期内，凶杀率下降了约40%，这使他非常受欢迎；他于2024年10月成为联邦安全部长。谢因鲍姆政府称上任首年全国凶杀率下降32%，而《经济学人》的分析发现下降14%；包括过失杀人、厌女症谋杀和三分之二失踪者的更广泛指标显示下降6%。墨西哥今年预计将发生约24,300起谋杀，低于最近每年略高于30,000的平均值。

哈尔富奇的做法是明显以数据驱动：他被赋予广泛的协调和情报权力，盟友掌管金融情报单位，逮捕率处于历史高位，缴获的火器也已翻倍以上。他针对最暴力的犯罪分子和后勤人员，而非仅追捕头目。萨卡特卡斯在清洗腐败警官、从其他地区招聘新警察、成立两个特种部队并对最暴力市镇实施统一指挥后，凶杀率降幅在各州中最为陡峭；公民报案有所回升。相比之下，锡那罗亚自2024年末以来的帮派内斗使凶杀率增长了三倍，尽管全州部署了超过11,000名联邦军队。

结构性限制依然严重：大约三分之二的谋杀与有组织犯罪相关；大约2,469个市镇中有约400个缺乏地方警力；哈尔富奇的新联邦警察部队目前仅招募了1,500名警员。安全部在2026年预算中占比不足1%，其拨款将比2025年减少约18%；萨卡特卡斯将警察月薪提高到16,000比索，而其他市级警员的收入仍低至该水平的大约三分之一。哈尔富奇的支持率已接近70%，但在单一六年任期内重建空心化的安全机构和瓦解帮派的控制可能无法完成，更彻底的成功或许要留给其继任者。

Stickers for “#ElBuenoEsHarfuch” still appear across Mexico City after Omar García Harfuch’s 2023 mayoral bid. During his four-year tenure as city security chief the murder rate fell by about 40%, making him highly popular; he became federal security minister in October 2024. Ms Sheinbaum’s government says the national murder rate fell 32% in her first year, while The Economist’s analysis finds a 14% decline; a broader measure including manslaughter, femicide and two‑thirds of disappearances shows a 6% drop. Mexico is on track for roughly 24,300 murders this year, down from a recent annual average of just over 30,000.

Mr Harfuch’s approach is overtly data‑driven: he was given broad coordination and intelligence powers, allies run the financial‑intelligence unit, arrests are at record levels and firearms seizures have more than doubled. He focuses on the most violent operatives and logistics rather than only kingpins. Zacatecas shows sharper declines after purging corrupt officers, creating two special‑forces units and unifying command; citizens’ reporting has risen. By contrast in Sinaloa a gang war since late 2024 has tripled the murder rate despite more than 11,000 federal troops.

Structural limits persist: roughly two‑thirds of murders are linked to organised crime; about 400 of 2,469 municipalities lack local police; Mr Harfuch’s new federal police corps has recruited only 1,500 officers. The security ministry receives under 1% of the 2026 budget and its funding will fall roughly 18% from 2025; Zacatecas pays 16,000 pesos/month to police while some municipal officers earn about a third of that. Mr Harfuch’s approval is near 70%, but rebuilding institutions will likely take longer than Ms Sheinbaum’s six‑year term.