北京近期收紧对资金非法外流与海外交易的监管，可能削弱这股购买力，特别是豪宅市场，因为大额订金往往需要从内地汇出现金。中国居民每人每年海外流出仍有5万美元上限；分析师预期，高端住宅需求可能受压，但若买家已在境外持有资金或企业，影响可能较小。即使如此，香港住宅价格已较去年低位反弹10%，而中国房价自2021年下行以来仍未止跌。
整体而言，香港住宅市场受内地与本地需求双重支撑，未来供应减少亦可能推高价格。DBS估计，2026至2028年香港每年平均落成量约14,450伙，低于过去30年每年近18,000伙的水平，配合租金回报高于按揭利率的正向租赁收益，对投资者具吸引力。商业与零售市场同样受惠，过去一年阿里巴巴与京东合计斥资约14亿美元购买写字楼，内地品牌亦带动主要商圈出租率上升。
In the first quarter, mainland Chinese buyers spent a record HK$43 billion, or $5.5 billion, on Hong Kong property, expanding beyond luxury homes into two-bedroom apartments, office stakes, and new-build residences. Their median purchase value in the first four months of the year was HK$6.95 million, above the HK$5.43 million median for locals, and after non-resident buyer taxes were removed in 2024, mainland buyers accounted for about one third of all purchases.
Beijing’s tighter enforcement against illicit cross-border funding and overseas fund transfers could curb this demand, especially in the luxury segment where large deposits often require cash moved out of the mainland. Individuals still face a $50,000 annual outflow cap, and analysts say the impact may be most visible in high-end sales, though buyers with offshore cash or businesses outside China may be less affected. Even so, Hong Kong home prices have rebounded 10% from last year’s trough, while China’s housing market remains in a yearslong decline since 2021.
Overall Hong Kong’s residential market is being supported by both mainland and local demand, while tighter future supply may further lift prices. DBS estimates average annual completions of about 14,450 units from 2026 to 2028, well below the nearly 18,000 units built annually over the past three decades, and positive rental carry adds to the appeal. Commercial and retail property are also benefiting, with Alibaba and JD.com spending roughly $1.4 billion on major office deals and mainland brands helping raise occupancy in key shopping districts.