美国新屋价格首次在 50 多年里低于转售房，标志住房市场出现结构性断裂。开发商在 2023–2025 年逐步放弃自 1973 年以来约 16% 的新屋溢价，并在截至 8 月的三个月内将平均激励提高到售价的 7.5%。这些“隐性降价”尚未计入名义销售数据，因为按息下调等让利不反映在挂牌价中。相比之下，现房成交数据仅记录成功交易，掩盖了大量高价挂牌无法售出的失败案例。尽管全国房价仍呈持平或微涨，但新建房的折价出售才真实反映出售难度。
现房市场被扭曲，主要因“锁定效应”与卖方锚定心理。大量房主持有极低利率贷款，不愿挂牌；许多 2021–2022 年高位买入者处于零或负资产，也无法亏损出售；更多卖方仍固守社区 2022 年的价格高点。尽管理论上库存已回到 2019 年水平、销量三年来僵在 400 万套附近，但上市时间持续延长，年底退市数量激增，显示卖方普遍选择“等明年”。但真正压制买方的不是利率，而是可负担性与就业不确定性。过去六年房价上涨 55%，而工资仅涨 30%，即便利率回落至 3% 也无法弥合差距。
实时数据已显现价格下行：Compass 报告称，每周待售成交量达到三年来最高，而每平方英尺要价同比下降 1.5%，跌速快于去年同期，若趋势持续，年底可能跌破 2023 年水平。历史经验显示，卖方若在本年度没卖出，来年大概率不会更好。开发商曾押注结构性供应不足与降息带动需求，但现实是负担能力弱、库存高企与消费信心疲弱将继续压低房价，直到更接近 2010 年代的可负担区间。
US new homes are selling at discounts to existing homes for the first time in more than 50 years, signaling a structural break in housing demand. Builders have surrendered the roughly 16% new-home premium maintained since 1973 and offered incentives averaging 7.5% of sale prices in the three months through August. These effective discounts—especially mortgage-rate buydowns—don’t appear in nominal sale prices. Meanwhile, existing-home data capture only successful transactions, masking a swelling pool of failed listings. Despite flat national price indices, new-build weakness reveals true market stress.
The resale market is distorted by lock-in and seller anchoring. Millions hold ultra-low mortgage rates and refuse to move; many 2021–2022 buyers have zero or negative equity; others cling to 2022 price peaks. Inventory has returned to roughly 2019 levels, yet annualized sales remain stuck at 4 million for a third year. Days on market keep rising and delistings are surging as sellers hope next year improves. But affordability—not interest rates—is the core constraint. US home prices rose 55% over six years while wages rose only 30%; even a return to 3% mortgage rates wouldn’t close that gap.
High-frequency data show price deterioration accelerating. Compass reports weekly pending sales at a three-year high but asking prices per square foot down 1.5% year over year, with declines steeper than last year; prices may fall below 2023 levels by year-end. Sellers who failed to attract offers shouldn’t expect improvement in 2026. Builders already misjudged structural undersupply and rate-cut hopes, only to confront weak sentiment and rising incentives. Elevated inventory, poor affordability, and soft consumer confidence will continue pushing prices down until they approach the affordability levels last seen in the 2010s.