法规面上，7月通过的「One Big Beautiful Bill」将自明年起逐步把采用中资企业制造的电池/太阳能电池之专案排除在税额抵减之外；凡「中资持股超过25%」或与被列为中国军事实体的公司有关联者，也将丧失多类洁净电力、燃料与制造投资的抵减资格。关税波动亦加剧不确定性：中国目前面临47.5%的「对等」关税，另有分析提及明年非电动车用锂电池关税可能升至25%。
即便9月转弱，中国在第三季仍占锂电池进口80.7%（去年同期77%），南韩占6.3%、日本占4.5%。2025年前9个月进口总量超过110万吨，年增46.6%；其中电动车用锂电池进口量降12%至27,220吨，为近三年最低。成长动能主要来自储能：ICF估计用电需求到2030年增25%、2050年增78%，BloombergNEF预估2025年新增储能42.4GWh、年增8%；同时多数2026年投运专案仍预期以进口（以中国为主）为大宗，但到2028年为拿到抵减，非中国电芯占比料将上升。
U.S. battery imports fell sharply in Q3 (Jul–Sep), down 36.2% quarter-on-quarter to 304,269 metric tons. Chinese lithium-ion battery shipments weakened further in September, dropping 58% from August, while imports from South Korea jumped 151%, signaling rapid sourcing shifts amid policy uncertainty.
Regulatory pressure is rising after the One Big Beautiful Bill passed in July: starting next year, projects using batteries or solar cells made by a Chinese company will be gradually excluded from tax credits. Entities more than 25% Chinese-owned, or tied to a firm listed as a Chinese military entity, also risk losing eligibility across multiple clean-power, clean-fuel, and manufacturing credits. Trade volatility adds to the risk: China faces a 47.5% “reciprocal” tariff, with expectations that non-EV lithium-ion tariff rates from China could rise to 25% next year.
Despite the slump, China still supplied 80.7% of Q3 lithium-ion imports (up from 77% a year earlier), versus 6.3% from South Korea and 4.5% from Japan. Total imports for the first nine months of 2025 exceeded 1.1 million tons, up 46.6% year-on-year, even as EV battery imports fell 12% to 27,220 tons (the lowest quarterly level in nearly three years). Growth is increasingly storage-led: ICF projects electricity demand +25% by 2030 and +78% by 2050, while BloombergNEF forecasts 42.4 GWh of storage additions in 2025 (+8%). Analysts still expect most 2026 storage batteries to be imported (mainly from China), but anticipate a pivot toward non-Chinese cells by 2028 to secure tax credits.
