随著伊朗战争似乎即将迎来解决，川普政府正把重心转向古巴——这座位于佛罗里达外海 90 英里的、由共产党执政的岛屿。Donald Trump 一再表示，在中东主要行动之后，下一个就是古巴；他的团队，包括国务卿 Marco Rubio，正试图让哈瓦那比起对委内瑞拉或苏联，更加依赖美国。这项努力是在多年向古巴主要盟友委内瑞拉施压之后展开的，其中包括 1 月 3 日在卡拉卡斯的突袭，导致 Nicolás Maduro 被监禁，以及新的制裁、石油封锁和其他措施，但截至目前都未能迫使古巴政府改变。
最新一波施压结合了外交、胁迫，以及可见的军事讯号。CIA 局长本月造访哈瓦那，表示在政府放松其扼喉式控制之前，必须先有根本改变；与此同时，五角大厦在 Raúl Castro 因可追溯至 1996 年的谋杀指控遭到起诉的同一天，派出 USS Nimitz 及支援舰前往加勒比海。古巴领导人表示愿意谈判，但前提是主权与现有制度必须受到尊重。与此同时，这个 1000 万人口国家的燃料短缺已瘫痪大多数产业和许多日常生活，停电动辄持续数小时；而只有私人企业——这类企业在革命初期曾被取缔、直到 2021 年才再次合法化——仍在 नियमित运作。
这场施压行动已经影响到投资者，并可能加剧经济压力。Trump 对在古巴营运的外国公司实施的制裁，帮助吓退了一家加拿大镍矿商；而后来 Sherritt International 在一位曾任 Trump 顾问的人浮现为潜在援手后，暂停了其解散合资企业的计划。上周最高法院就数千起古巴财产索赔案件之一作出的裁决，也再度警告潜在投资者，应预期局势动荡。过去周末美国在卡拉卡斯的军事演习，包括海军陆战队在首都山丘上展示星条旗，凸显了华盛顿传达的更广泛讯息：即使哈瓦那坚称应以谈判解决，美方在必要时也准备动武。
With a resolution to the war in Iran seemingly approaching, the Trump administration is sharpening its focus on Cuba, the communist-run island 90 miles off Florida. Donald Trump has repeatedly said Cuba is next after major operations in the Middle East, and his team, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is trying to make Havana more dependent on the United States than it has been on Venezuela or the Soviet Union. The effort comes after years of pressure on Cuba’s main ally, Venezuela, including the Jan. 3 raid in Caracas that led to Nicolás Maduro’s imprisonment, as well as new sanctions, an oil blockade, and other measures that have so far failed to shift the Cuban government.
The latest push combines diplomacy, coercion, and visible military signaling. The CIA chief visited Havana this month to say radical change is needed before the administration loosens its chokehold, while the Pentagon sent the USS Nimitz and support ships to the Caribbean the same day Raúl Castro was indicted on murder charges dating back to 1996. Cuba’s leaders say they are willing to negotiate, but only if sovereignty and the existing system are respected. At the same time, the country’s fuel shortage has paralyzed most industries and much daily life in a nation of 10 million people, with blackouts lasting for hours on end and only private businesses, legalized again in 2021 after being outlawed in the early revolutionary years, still operating regularly.
The pressure campaign is already affecting investors and could intensify economic strain. Trump’s sanctions on foreign firms operating in Cuba helped scare off a Canadian nickel miner, and Sherritt International later halted plans to dissolve its joint ventures after a former adviser to Trump emerged as a possible rescuer. A Supreme Court ruling last week in one of the thousands of Cuba property-claims cases was another warning that potential investors should expect turbulence. US military exercises in Caracas over the weekend, including Marines displaying the Stars and Stripes on the capital’s hills, underscore the broader message that Washington is prepared to use force if needed, even as Havana insists on negotiation.