一项由 Rutgers University 统计学家 Harry Crane 进行、Coalition for Prediction Markets 资助但由 Crane 保持编辑控制的新研究估计，尽管 Polymarket 的主要加密货币平台自 2022 年起在美国被禁止，约 30% 的 Polymarket 交易量仍来自美国。研究追踪 2025 年 5 月至 2026 年 4 月底的离岸预测市场活动，估计美国用户透过 Polymarket 投入 106 亿至 267 亿美元（$10.6 billion to $26.7 billion）。
该研究指出，Polymarket 的高交易量市场多与美国相关，包括美国选举与体育赛事；在体育垂直市场中，美国交易者约占一半活动。Pew Research 报告称，2026 年 4 月 Polymarket US 的交易量约为 16 亿美元（$1.6 billion），而主要加密货币平台约达 90 亿美元（$9 billion），显示被禁的主要平台规模远大于其美国持牌行动应用版本。
Crane 的方法并非直接观察地理流量，而是依交易时间、交易市场类型及美国用户偏好等间接代理变数推估，因此结果不精确但具参考性。University of Toronto Scarborough 的 Charles Martineau 认为此类代理方法在金融研究中常见。CFTC 主席 Michael Selig 表示可逐案使用域外管辖权；另一起 4 月案件中，一名特种部队士兵被控利用 Nicolás Maduro 相关机密资讯在 Polymarket 获利约 40 万美元（$400,000）。研究并预测，若 Polymarket 加密平台维持市占，美国交易量到 2030 年可能达 1,330 亿美元（$133 billion）。
A new study by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane, funded by the Coalition for Prediction Markets while Crane retained editorial control, estimates that roughly 30 percent of Polymarket trading volume comes from the United States, even though Polymarket’s main crypto-based platform has been banned there since 2022. Tracking offshore prediction-market activity from May 2025 through the end of April 2026, the study estimates that US users routed $10.6 billion to $26.7 billion through Polymarket.
The study found that many of Polymarket’s highest-volume markets were US-focused, including US elections and sports events; in the sports vertical, US-based traders accounted for about half of activity. Pew Research reported that Polymarket US, the licensed US mobile app, had about $1.6 billion in trading volume in April 2026, while the main crypto platform reached about $9 billion, showing that the banned primary platform remained far larger than its US-licensed version.
Crane’s method did not directly observe traffic geography; instead, it inferred US activity from indirect proxies such as trade timing, market type, and US-specific preferences, making the estimate imprecise but informative. Charles Martineau of the University of Toronto Scarborough said such proxy methods are common in finance research. CFTC chairman Michael Selig said the agency can use extraterritorial jurisdiction case by case; in one April case, a special forces soldier was charged with using classified information about Nicolás Maduro to make about $400,000 from Polymarket trades. The study projects that, if Polymarket’s crypto platform keeps its market share, US trading volume could reach $133 billion by 2030.