在即将举行的美中元首峰会国宴上，美国总统川普的宾客名单凸显了其政府的内部权力倾轧与科技立场：反对监管的辉达黄仁勋等加速主义者预计获邀，而呼吁建立监管护栏的 Anthropic 执行长阿莫迪则被排除。川普更公开将对人工智慧的担忧斥为骗局与阴谋论，这种反监管的强硬立场直接强化了北京对美方将 AI 视为零和博弈的判断，进而让峰会就 AI 治理达成实质成果的希望变得极为渺茫。
尽管川普曾在五月的北京峰会上承诺就 AI 安全护栏展开对话，但双方分歧严重且美国政策前后矛盾。当前美中在 AI 领域的差距已被缩小至半年到一年半之间，中国更在部分领域反超，并借由免费开源模型在南方世界取得显著优势。然而，美国内部无论是监管派将中国领先视为威胁，还是加速派拒绝官方约束，都让中方感到美国无意平等协商；专家亦指出，若美方自身不愿率先建立规范，便难以促使中国认真看待克制承诺。
针对下周川普与习近平峰会能否在 AI 议题取得突破，资深记者塞瓦斯托波洛给予了悲观评估。尽管川普曾谈及护栏，但随后改口称监管将阻碍美国发展，且过去数月双边对话毫无实质进展。即使两国高层在峰会前夕会晤，也难以在短时间内化解巨大分歧，因此各界普遍预期本次峰会顶多只能发表空泛的未来合作声明，难以签署具有实质约束力的人工智慧协议。
Ahead of the upcoming state dinner for Xi Jinping, Donald Trump's expected guest list reflects his administration's internal tech alignment, welcoming accelerationists like Nvidia's Jensen Huang while excluding Anthropic's Dario Amodei due to his calls for regulation. Trump's dismissal of AI safety concerns as a hoax, paired with his rhetoric framing AI criticism as an anti-American conspiracy, reinforces China's perception of AI as a zero-sum contest and dampens expectations for any significant summit breakthroughs on AI governance.
Although Trump previously pledged in Beijing to discuss AI guardrails, his resistance to domestic oversight overlooks how rapidly China is closing the technological divide, with the US lead now estimated at only six to eighteen months and Chinese models gaining widespread traction globally. With both American rationalists and accelerationists framing the issue around countering Chinese dominance, Beijing remains skeptical of US intentions, underscoring the view that meaningful bilateral progress is impossible unless Washington demonstrates a willingness to self-regulate.
Veteran journalist Demetri Sevastopulo offers a decidedly pessimistic forecast for tangible AI outcomes from the Trump-Xi summit, citing the lack of momentum since their initial talks and Trump's recent assertions that regulatory guardrails would hamper American competitiveness. Even with preliminary cabinet-level meetings in New York, the limited negotiating window and deep-seated bilateral mistrust mean the most realistic outcome is a vague joint statement on future dialogue rather than an enforceable pact.