证据集中在半导体预期的大幅上调：由于先进 AI 晶片与较基本的记忆体晶片需求都在上升，券商如今预测 SOX 半导体指数 2027 年的获利将接近前一年的两倍。自从 ChatGPT 于 2022 年 11 月 30 日推出以来，市场看法出现了重大逆转；当时，Magnificent Seven 被广泛视为 AI 的主要赢家。过去 6 个月，这种看法已经翻转，而自推出当天以来，SOX 指数的表现已经优于 Magnificent Seven。
与此同时，市场涨幅也越来越集中。Magnificent Seven 仍持续跑赢 S&P 500 的其余成分，但市值加权指数已比等权重版本拉开更大差距；在等权重版本中，无论大小，每档股票都只占 0.2%。文章表示，这种集中度在整个 AI 时代都在加剧，意味著少数赢家正攫取不成比例的报酬，而更广泛的市场即使已创下历史新高也是如此。就目前而言，强劲的获利与温和的宏观背景支持这种看法：整体市场蛋糕仍在扩大，即使大部分涨幅都流向少数几个名字。
Chipmakers have become a major chokepoint in the AI boom, with their grip on supply chains affecting markets even more than Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz. That scarcity is helping drive an unprecedented earnings surge, especially for the S&P 500 in the 1st quarter, where companies are beating forecasts by more than usual. The article argues that the semiconductor industry, powered by AI demand and tighter-than-expected supply, is now central to market performance.
The evidence centers on a sharp upgrade in semiconductor expectations: brokers now forecast 2027 earnings for the SOX semiconductor index to be almost double the prior year after rising demand for both advanced AI chips and more basic memory chips. This is a major reversal in market perception since ChatGPT launched on November 30, 2022, when the Magnificent Seven were widely seen as the main AI winners. Over the last 6 months, that view has flipped, and the SOX index has outperformed the Magnificent Seven since launch day.
At the same time, market gains have become increasingly concentrated. The Magnificent Seven continue to beat the rest of the S&P 500, but the cap-weighted index has pulled further ahead of the equal-weighted version, where each stock counts for 0.2% regardless of size. The article says this concentration has intensified throughout the AI era, implying that a small group of winners is capturing a disproportionate share of returns even as the broader market reaches all-time highs. For now, strong earnings and a benign macro backdrop support the view that the overall market pie is still expanding, even if most of the gains go to a few names.