AI 驱动的记忆体短缺正在重塑电子供应链。大型科技公司为了锁定 AI 容量，以溢价签署多年合约，将更多产能拉向高毛利的 HBM 与资料中心用 DRAM。其结果是，现货 DRAM 价格在过去一年某些情况下飙升近 700%，而 2026 年大型科技公司的 AI 支出预计达 6,500 亿美元（约 6,500 亿美元），较前一年纪录高出约 80%。IDC 因此称这场紧缩为「前所未有的危机」，而且即使增产，缓解也可能仍需一年以上。

这种压力反映了需求结构的明显转变。资料中心对 DRAM 的需求在 2025 年已约占全球消耗量的 50%，高于五年前的 32%，到 2030 年 AI 伺服器预计将占全球消耗量 60% 以上。供应也正更集中于少数 AI 客户：SK Hynix 与 Micron 前 50 大客户的销售占比，从 2022 年的 47% 升至 2026 年的 78%，而两家公司合计营收则由约 660 亿美元（约 660 亿美元）增至超过 1,000 亿美元（约 1,000 亿美元）。

成本冲击已扩散到终端产品。HP 表示，记忆体在笔电物料成本中的占比，已由前一季约 15% 至 18% 升至约 35%；Counterpoint Research 预估，智慧型手机物料成本可能在未来几季上升 15% 以上，而 IDC 预测 2026 年全球智慧型手机市场将萎缩 12.9%。同时，HBM 制造本身极难扩张：晶圆厚度约 20 微米，TSV 柱约 5 微米，焊点小至 10 微米，且单一堆叠可包含多达 16 层。这使供给回应昂贵、缓慢且低良率，意味著手机、PC、游戏主机与汽车都可能更昂贵，部分低利润产品甚至可能被放弃。

AI-driven memory shortages are reshaping the electronics supply chain. To lock in AI capacity, big tech companies are signing multiyear contracts at a premium, pulling more production toward high-margin HBM and data-center DRAM. As a result, spot DRAM prices have jumped by nearly 700% in some cases over the past year, while big tech AI spending in 2026 is projected to reach $650 billion ($650 billion), about 80% above the prior year’s record. IDC therefore calls the squeeze a crisis like no other, and relief may still be more than a year away even if output rises.

The pressure reflects a clear shift in demand structure. Data centers accounted for about 50% of global DRAM consumption in 2025, up from 32% five years earlier, and AI servers are projected to exceed 60% of global consumption by 2030. Supply is also concentrating around a small set of AI buyers: the top 50 customers of SK Hynix and Micron rose from 47% of sales in 2022 to 78% in 2026, while the two companies’ combined revenue increased from about $66 billion ($66 billion) to more than $100 billion ($100 billion).

The cost shock is already reaching end products. HP says memory has risen from about 15% to 18% of laptop bill-of-materials cost in the prior quarter to roughly 35%; Counterpoint Research estimates smartphone bill-of-materials costs could rise by 15% or more in coming quarters, and IDC projects the global smartphone market will shrink 12.9% in 2026. At the same time, HBM manufacturing is inherently hard to scale: wafer height is about 20 microns, TSV columns about 5 microns, solder bumps as small as 10 microns, and a single stack can include as many as 16 layers. That makes the supply response expensive, slow, and yield-constrained, implying higher prices for phones, PCs, game consoles, and cars, with some low-margin products potentially abandoned.