全球发达市场的央行也正在做出反应。欧洲央行预计将在下周进行自 2023 年以来的首次升息。对于英格兰银行，市场预期在 2026 年底前将升息 0.25 个百分点（即四分之一点）。在美国，期货合约显示联邦准备理事会在 2026 年底前升息的机率为 25%（四分之一），这将在即将于 6 月 17 日至 18 日举行、由新任联准会主席 Kevin Warsh 主持的会议中受到关注。相反地，发展中亚洲经济体正面临独特的挣扎，因为能源成本压低了增长，导致印尼盾等货币处于历史低位附近。
这种分歧标志著从大流行后同步的通货膨胀转向高度特殊的国内压力。从长远来看，AI 预计将具有去通膨效应，但其眼前的供应链需求正在推高价格。Franklin Templeton 的 Richard Rauch 指出了这种分散性，表示偏好投资于印度、印尼和韩国，同时对中国、泰国和菲律宾保持谨慎。
Asia's central banks face mounting pressure to tighten monetary policy amid a costly energy crunch and an AI demand boom. Under Governor Kazuo Ueda, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its benchmark rate to its highest level since 1995 in mid-June, supported by 5 of 9 board members. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea maintains its rate despite a hawkish shift in its six-month dot plot and 2 dissenting policymakers favoring a hike. Elsewhere in the region, Australia has raised rates 3 times this year, and the Reserve Bank of India faces pressure to tighten to support the rupee, which has depreciated by over 5% this year. Conversely, China has lowered its one-year policy loan rate to a record low to boost its slowing economy.
Global developed-market central banks are also reacting. The European Central Bank is projected to deliver its first rate hike since 2023 next week. For the Bank of England, markets price in a 0.25-percentage-point (one quarter-point) rate increase by the end of 2026. In the United States, futures contracts indicate a 25% (one-in-four) probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2026, which will be monitored during the upcoming June 17–18 meeting led by Chairman Kevin Warsh. Conversely, developing Asian economies face unique struggles as energy costs depress growth, leaving currencies like the Indonesian rupiah near record lows.
This divergence marks a shift from synchronized post-pandemic inflation to highly idiosyncratic domestic pressures. In the long term, AI is expected to be disinflationary, but its immediate supply chain demand is driving up prices. Strategist Richard Rauch of Franklin Templeton notes this dispersion, expressing a preference for investments in India, Indonesia, and South Korea, while remaining cautious on China, Thailand, and the Philippines.