尽管外部逆风加剧，中国今年仍录得约1兆美元的创纪录贸易顺差，一至十一月出口成长5.4%，前九个月实际国内生产毛额成长5.2%，使全年约5%的目标大致可期。11月生产者物价下跌2.2%，消费者通膨则上升0.7%，一至九月名目GDP仅成长4.1%，汽车与家电补贴预算也加倍至3000亿元人民币，凸显通缩压力与消费动能转弱。
与美国的贸易紧张在双方同意回撤部分关税并允许包含辉达Hopper 200在内的高阶晶片输华后有所缓和，分析人士预期2026年再爆发贸易战的机率偏低，因双方都忙于解决稀土与半导体等瓶颈。尽管如此，北京仍预期外部不确定性偏高，一方面试图抑制导致美团单季亏损186亿元的恶性价格竞争，一方面筹备更积极的宏观支持，同时设定到2035年让住户消费占比显著上升、并将人均GDP由1万3300美元推升至中等发达国家水准的目标。
China's leadership signaled a major investment and consumption push for 2026 after a 1.7% year-on-year drop in fixed-asset investment for January to October and persistent weak domestic demand. The Central Economic Work Conference pledged to halt the decline in investment, expand central government budgetary spending, raise urban and rural incomes, and extend equipment and consumer goods subsidies. Officials also vowed to stabilize the real estate market, where sales have slumped despite mortgage easing, as worries over big developers threaten a key store of household wealth.
Despite external headwinds, China posted a record trade surplus of about 1 trillion dollars this year, 5.4% export growth from January to November, and 5.2% real GDP growth in the first nine months, keeping it on track for the around 5% annual target. Producer prices fell 2.2% in November while consumer inflation rose 0.7%, nominal GDP grew only 4.1% in January to September, and subsidy budgets for cars and appliances were doubled to 300 billion yuan, underscoring deflationary pressure and fading consumption momentum.
Trade tensions with the United States have eased after agreements to roll back tariffs and allow advanced chips such as Nvidia's Hopper 200 into China, and analysts see a low likelihood of another trade war in 2026 as both sides tackle bottlenecks in rare earths and semiconductors. Still, Beijing expects high external uncertainty, is trying to curb cut-throat price competition that left Meituan with an 18.6 billion yuan quarterly loss, and is preparing more proactive macro support while targeting a significant rise in household consumption and per capita GDP from 13,300 dollars toward moderately developed levels by 2035.
