特斯拉的成长不只是放缓，全球交付量可能连续第 2 年下滑；马斯克的重心也从 2.5 万美元平价电动车转向无人计程车与人形机器人。比亚迪 2025 年将成为纯电销量第 1，但总销量已连续 3 个月下跌；其产品结构仍呈 1:1——每卖 1 台纯电，就生产 1 台带燃油引擎的插混，且北京加强对价格战的监管。
传统车厂也在用数字承认「过度押注」：通用近期提列 16 亿美元以缩减电动产能；Stellantis 取消纯电 Ram 皮卡并重启 V8。福斯本月在德累斯顿停产 ID.3，这是 88 年来首次有德国组装厂停线；其子公司保时捷因电动化回撤提列 47 亿欧元（约 55 亿美元）。即便如此，政策并未放弃：欧盟 2035 年目标改为尾气减少 90%（非 100%），且以低碳燃料与绿色钢材等条件抵换新增污染。
The global EV shift is starting to unwind in the classic pattern: slowly at first, then abruptly. This week, the European Commission backed away from its most aggressive internal-combustion phaseout path, giving buyers and manufacturers more time. Ford then disclosed $19.5 billion in charges tied to retreating from an “all-in” EV strategy.
Tesla’s trajectory is no longer just cooling; worldwide deliveries are poised to fall for a second straight year, while Elon Musk’s focus has drifted from a $25,000 EV toward robotaxis and humanoid robots. BYD is set to become the No. 1 battery-electric seller in 2025, yet its total sales have declined in each of the past three months. Its mix remains roughly 1:1—one plug-in hybrid with a gas engine for every battery-only EV—and regulators in Beijing are scrutinizing pricing.
Legacy peers are posting their own balance-sheet signals. GM took a $1.6 billion charge to pare EV capacity and hinted at more. Stellantis scrapped an all-electric Ram pickup and revived V-8s. Volkswagen is ending ID.3 output in Dresden this month—the first German plant stoppage in 88 years—while VW booked €4.7 billion ($5.5 billion) tied to Porsche’s EV pullback. The transition continues, but EU policy now targets a 90% tailpipe cut by 2035 (down from 100%), with offsets like low-carbon fuels and green steel.
