美国市场在特朗普未延长针对伊朗能源基础设施攻击期限后，周五再次走弱。标普500指数下跌1.7%，本月累计跌幅超过7%，且前一日已是战争爆发以来最差交易日。随著抛售加剧，10年期美国国债殖利率一度升至4.48%，为7月以来最高；欧洲债券殖利率在更依赖进口能源的背景下亦触及冲突高位。
布伦特原油自冲突开始以来上涨超过50%，再次引发“滞涨”忧虑——即经济增长放缓与物价上升并行——使股票与债券同受损害。黄金本月亦重挫15%，随著先前两年上涨行情被解套及利率预期上升而受压。BNP Paribas Asset Management的Sophie Huynh称市场“无处可躲”；Goldman Sachs的Christian Mueller-Glissmann指出，最初对通胀冲击有助的仅有相关衍生品。Bank of America调查亦显示，冲突后投资者以自COVID-19以来最快速度挤入现金，Mizuho的Jordan Rochester则警告，市场将更关注地面能源短缺而非白宫话语。
Global equities and bonds fell together in March as the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed energy prices higher. The MSCI All Country World index is down about 9%, while a broad global bond benchmark is down more than 3%. This puts the traditional 60-40 portfolio on course for its worst monthly outcome since September 2022. As Raphaël Thuin of Tikehau Capital put it, “what’s working for investors? nothing,” highlighting how hard risk management has become.
U.S. markets stayed weak on Friday after Trump failed to extend his deadline for attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. The S&P 500 fell 1.7%, taking the monthly decline to more than 7%, after posting the worst day since the war started on Thursday. As selling intensified, yields rose: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.48%, the highest since July, while European yields also touched conflict highs in a region more dependent on imported energy.
Brent crude has gained more than 50% since the conflict began, reviving stagflation fears of slowing growth and rising prices that can hurt both equities and bonds. Gold also dropped 15% this month as the prior two-year rally was unwound and higher rate expectations reduced its appeal. Sophie Huynh of BNP Paribas Asset Management said there was nowhere to hide; Christian Mueller-Glissmann at Goldman Sachs said inflation- or commodity-linked derivatives were the only early hedges. A Bank of America survey showed investors piling into cash at the fastest pace since the pandemic, while Jordan Rochester of Mizuho warned attention is turning from White House jawboning to the on-the-ground energy shortage.