SpaceX、OpenAI 与 Anthropic 的 IPO 正把市场推向一场罕见的被动资金重分配。Nasdaq 本月实施「fast entry」规则后，这三家公司一上市就可更快纳入指数，吸引数十亿美元被动资金自动流入，同时迫使投资人卖出其他股票。SpaceX 已于周三申报 IPO，预计下月上市，目标估值约 1.75 兆美元，甚至可能成为史上最大上市案；OpenAI 也在同时揭露上市计划，Anthropic 则称已接近获利。

SpaceX 的流通股比例可能仅约 5%，但 Nasdaq 允许其在 15 天后加入 Nasdaq 100，且给予相当于已发行流通股价值 3 倍的指数权重；S&P Dow Jones Indices 也在研议加速纳入 S&P 500。JPMorgan 估计，若未来有 50% 股份流通、估值达 2 兆美元，被动投资人将被迫卖出 950 亿美元的美股前八大既有科技股。锁定期将在前 180 天分阶段到期，使对其他成分股的压力之后才会明显放大。

交易员预期，这不只会推高新股，也会带来对较小市值股票的卖压，尤其是可能被从 Nasdaq 100 剔除的边际成分股。Syz Group 的 Valérie Noël、TD Securities 的 Peter Haynes、Strategas 的 Todd Sohn 与 Citi 的 Christian Raute 都形容这将是近年少见的大型指数事件：只有约 5% 流通股可交易，却要让追踪数兆美元资产的 ETF 与被动产品进场；若 SpaceX 在 IPO 后一周上涨 100%，被动资金仍得照单全收。

SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs are driving a rare forced reallocation in markets. After Nasdaq’s “fast entry” rules took effect this month, the three companies can enter indices much sooner after listing, pulling in billions of dollars of passive money automatically while forcing investors to sell other stocks. SpaceX filed for IPO on Wednesday and is expected to list next month with a target valuation of about $1.75tn, potentially the largest float on record; OpenAI also unveiled listing plans, while Anthropic said it was close to profitability.

SpaceX may offer only about 5 per cent of shares to the public, yet Nasdaq will allow it into the Nasdaq 100 after just 15 days and assign an index weight equivalent to 3 times the value of the floated shares. S&P Dow Jones Indices is also considering changes that could speed entry into the S&P 500. JPMorgan estimates that if 50 per cent of shares are eventually floated at a $2tn valuation, passive investors would need to sell $95bn of the eight biggest existing US tech stocks. The staggered lock-up expirations over the first 180 days mean the pressure on other constituents should intensify later.

Traders expect the effect to include not only gains for the new listings but also selling pressure on smaller stocks, especially marginal Nasdaq 100 names that could be removed to make room. Valérie Noël of Syz Group, Peter Haynes of TD Securities, Todd Sohn of Strategas, and Christian Raute of Citi all described this as an unusually large index event: ETFs and passive products tracking trillions of dollars will be forced to act even though only about 5 per cent of the float is available. If SpaceX rises 100 per cent in the week after the IPO, passive investors still must buy at that higher price.