中国在2025年展现出强大的制造与出口能力，却暴露出内需疲弱的结构性失衡。全年贸易顺差预计约为1160亿美元，经常账户顺差约756亿美元，显示经济增长在很大程度上“借力于海外”。与此同时，国内需求持续低迷，零售销售未见改善。汽车市场形成鲜明反差：2025年11月新车出口同比激增近49%，但国内零售销量同比下滑16.2%，汽车销售额同比下降8.3%，凸显“外强内弱”的增长格局。

消费疲软在品牌结构中尤为明显。高端外资品牌首当其冲，奔驰销量同比下降32%，宝马下降19%；大众市场车型同样表现低迷，部分原因在于此前对补贴的高度依赖以及去年高基数效应。经济学家警告，国内需求疲软正在加剧失衡，削弱出口导向模式的可持续性，并可能引发更多贸易摩擦。尽管中国将自身视为资源与能源安全不足的“弱者”，其制造能力在全球中的体量已使其客观上成为“经济巨人”。

外部压力与内部信心流失同步上升。中国目前占全球制造业约15%，预计2030年将升至16.5%，这一主导地位正促使其他经济体分散供应链并提高关税。资本外流迹象亦在加剧，最新估算显示单月隐含资本外流达802亿美元，而外汇储备约3.35万亿美元。面对青年失业上升与信心下降，分析认为中国需从单一的出口与制造驱动，转向以国内服务业和消费为核心的更均衡增长模式。

China ended 2025 as a manufacturing and export powerhouse, but with deepening structural imbalances driven by weak domestic demand. The annual trade surplus was forecast at about $116 billion and the current account surplus at roughly $75.6 billion, indicating growth heavily reliant on external markets. At the same time, retail activity showed little improvement. The auto sector highlighted the contrast: in November 2025, new car exports jumped nearly 49% year on year, while domestic retail sales fell 16.2% and auto sales by value declined 8.3%, underscoring an export-heavy growth pattern.

Consumption weakness was especially visible across brands. Premium foreign marques were hit hardest, with Mercedes sales down 32% and BMW down 19% year on year, while mass-market registrations were also weak due to earlier reliance on subsidies and a high base effect. Economists warned that intensifying domestic-demand weakness raises doubts about the sustainability of an export-led model and increases the risk of trade pushback. Although Beijing views China as resource- and energy-constrained, its sheer manufacturing scale now places it objectively in the role of an economic giant.

External pressures are rising alongside eroding domestic confidence. China currently accounts for about 15% of global manufacturing output, projected to reach 16.5% by 2030, prompting partners to diversify supply chains and raise tariffs. Capital outflows are also elevated, with a preliminary estimate showing $80.2 billion leaving the country in a single month, despite foreign exchange reserves of about $3.35 trillion. With youth unemployment rising and confidence fading, analysts argue China must shift from reliance on exports and manufacturing toward a more balanced model centered on domestic services and consumption.