市场反应已经很明确，即使这些波动往往只是暂时的。周三，美国股市创下将近 1 年来最佳单日表现，上涨近 3%，而在 Trump 表示战争将会「很快」结束后，油价又跌回每桶 100 美元以下；但数小时内，他又威胁要「把他们送回石器时代」，油价随之反弹，股市也再度下跌。分析师表示，市场对新闻标题的疲乏感正在增加，但他们也指出，市场仍会对 Trump 的表态作出反应；而 BNP Paribas 的 Isabelle Mateos y Lago 警告说，资产波动温和反映出一种假设：即使更糟的结果也有可能出现，全球成长仍将维持住。
这篇文章认为，表面的平静可能具有误导性，而这场战争已成为一个具有系统风险的瓶颈危机，局势升级是非线性的，而且难以控制。到目前为止，与 Trump 在 2025 年宣布全球关税后的影响相比，股市受损仍属温和，部分原因在于投资人预期，若 11 月期中选举前通膨压力上升，美国会选择退让。但债券市场已经显露压力，交易变得更困难，较短期限债券大幅波动，就连黄金与美元这类典型避险资产也未能正常发挥作用，迫使投资人维持小部位、避免确信，并为长期的激进不确定性做好准备。
Investors are still hoping Donald Trump will quickly calm the Middle East war and restore more normal market conditions, because 2026 had looked set up for a strong run in risky assets: the AI trade was still alive, interest rates were trending lower, and US fiscal policy was expected to support markets. That optimism has carried over from the post-tariff episode a year earlier, with many investors eager to buy the dip even as the war in Iran drags on and Trump’s statements keep shifting between reassurance and escalation.
The market response has been clear, even if the moves have often been temporary. On Wednesday, US stocks had their best day in almost 1 year, rising by nearly 3%, and oil fell back below $100 a barrel after Trump said the war would end “very soon”; within hours he then threatened to “bring them back to the Stone Ages,” oil rebounded, and stocks fell again. Analysts say headline fatigue is growing, but they also note that markets still react to Trump’s pronouncements, while BNP Paribas’s Isabelle Mateos y Lago warned that tame asset moves reflect an assumption that global growth will hold up even though much worse outcomes are plausible.
The article argues that the apparent calm may be misleading and that the war has become a chokepoint crisis with system risk, where escalation is non-linear and hard to control. So far, the damage to stocks has been modest compared with the aftermath of Trump’s global tariffs announcement in 2025, partly because investors expect the US to back down if inflation pressures rise ahead of the November midterm elections. But bond markets are already showing strain, trading is getting harder, shorter-maturity bonds have swung sharply, and even typical safe havens such as gold and the dollar are not working normally, leaving investors to stay small, avoid certainty, and prepare for prolonged radical uncertainty.