伊朗最新一轮动荡始于2025年12月28日，并在两周内迅速升级，成为数十年来对伊斯兰共和国最严峻的挑战之一。德黑兰大巴扎已罢市近两周，这一历来被视为政权保守支持基础的象征性区域加入抗议，显著放大了示威规模。抗议背景是覆盖约9000万人口的经济危机，通胀失控、货币跌至历史低点，政府的应对措施仅包括每月7美元的现金补贴，被广泛视为象征性让步。
经济数据凸显压力强度。在截至6月的一年中，鸡肉、面包等基本食品平均价格上涨53%；仅在以色列空袭后的一个月内，大米、奶粉和乳制品价格再度上涨10%至30%。一名经济学家估计，过去五年约有2000万户家庭陷入贫困。油价下跌、美国制裁导致的原油出口锐减，以及基础设施投资匮乏，使伊朗经济在地区内持续落后。
政治与安全环境同步恶化。86岁的最高领袖面临健康与继任不确定性，地区影响力因以色列重创其盟友而削弱。安全部队被指在本轮抗议中的部署规模小于以往，但伊斯兰革命卫队已警告可能采取死刑等强硬手段。与此同时，民众口号已从经济诉求转向彻底否定体制，显示抗议已由周期性经济不满转化为系统性政治危机。
Iran’s latest unrest began on December 28, 2025, and escalated rapidly within two weeks, becoming one of the most serious challenges to the Islamic Republic in decades. Tehran’s Grand Bazaar has been on strike for nearly two weeks, a significant shift given its historic role as a conservative pillar of regime support. The protests are rooted in a nationwide economic crisis affecting roughly 90 million people, marked by runaway inflation and a currency at record lows, while the government’s response has been limited to a $7 monthly cash handout widely seen as symbolic.
Economic indicators underscore the severity of the strain. In the year to June, prices of basic goods such as chicken and bread rose by an average of 53%; in the month following Israeli airstrikes alone, staples including rice, powdered milk, and dairy jumped 10% to 30%. An economist estimates that about 20 million households have fallen into poverty over the past five years. Falling oil prices, sharply reduced crude exports due to US sanctions, and chronic underinvestment in infrastructure have left Iran’s economy lagging regional peers.
Political and security pressures are intensifying in parallel. The 86-year-old supreme leader faces health and succession uncertainty, while Iran’s regional influence has been weakened by Israeli attacks on allied forces. Although security force deployments appear lighter than in past protests, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned of harsh penalties, including possible death sentences. Protest slogans have shifted from economic grievances to outright rejection of the system, indicating a transition from cyclical unrest to a systemic political crisis.