影子运营者持续使用规避手段：关闭船位讯号发射、伪造文件、改名换旗和更换名义所有人。整体船队约四分之一会隐形作业，伊朗相关船只此情况接近四成。自2022年12月起，约三分之一船舶已三次以上换旗，并透过船对船（STS）转运掩盖来源；在距新加坡以东约240公里的廖亚群岛附近，卫星影像曾见至少8次同时STS转运，范围在10公里半径内。莫斯科则将路线转向印度，借此使预算新增收入升至每日约1.5亿美元，而战后伊朗在波斯湾缩减的出货中占比从战前约1/10升至三分之三。
美国对俄罗斯海上原油的豁免正造成跨大西洋分裂。欧洲与加拿大领导人认为这会削弱对俄罗斯与伊朗的金融压力，但欧盟仍维持制裁并继续查扣Ethera、Deyna等船舶。俄罗斯船只改挂俄旗，取消了此前依据的「无旗」法律基础，使部分截获行动升高风险。对伊朗而言，分析师认为全球油价影响有限，因欧盟与英国未同步跟进，金融限制仍在。面对高保险、价格脱钩与高运价，专家认为影子网络已成市场结构性特征，需求强劲时仍可在外交变动中持续运作。
The war in the Middle East has revived the shadow fleet instead of shrinking it. Yörük Işık reports about one tanker every hour and 20 minutes moving through Black Sea routes, and traffic through the Bosphorus has not slowed. After a December–February clampdown that put hundreds on western blacklists and seized over a dozen ships, U.S. easing on oil already at sea changed incentives. Washington allowed about US$15 billion of Iranian crude activity to run temporarily; Iran has since loaded about 1.5 million barrels per day (≈238,500 m³/day), earning more than US$140 million daily. At least 15 Iranian tankers have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, many partially concealing their positions.
Shadow operators keep using evasion methods: transponders are often switched off, documents are falsified, and names, flags, and ownership structures are changed. Around 25 percent of the fleet goes dark, with Iran-linked vessels in nearly 40 percent of observed cases. Since December 2022, about one in three ships has changed flags three times or more, then used ship-to-ship (STS) transfers to hide origin. In the Riau Archipelago, satellite views captured at least eight transfers at once within a 10 km radius. Russia shifted routes toward India, raising extra budget gains to about US$150 million per day, while Iran’s share of reduced Gulf shipments rose from about one-tenth before the war to three-quarters after.
The U.S. waiver for Russian crude at sea is creating a transatlantic split. European and Canadian leaders say it weakens pressure on Russia and Iran, even as the EU keeps sanctions and continues seizures of vessels such as Ethera and Deyna. Reflagging to Russian colours removes some legal basis for past seizures of “stateless” vessels and increases enforcement risk. For Iran, analysts expect limited global price impact because the EU and UK have not aligned with Washington and financial restrictions remain. With high insurance costs, price dislocations, and elevated freight rates, experts judge the shadow network a structural market feature, likely to keep operating through diplomatic volatility.