中国国内投资者需求亦支撑了市场,因资本管制限制其海外配置,降低国际抛售传染;这使中国债券未被卷入全球卖压。长期来看,中国10 年期殖利率自2014年初高于 4.7% 跌至去年初约 1.6%,曾被警告可能形成泡沫,人民银行亦曾提示突然逆转将威胁金融稳定。相比之下,欧洲与亚洲多数地区高度依赖进口能源而更易受油价冲击;中国的煤炭与可再生能源占比较高、备有巨大的战略石油储备,并可获得折扣俄罗斯石油与天然气,减轻对周边国家(如南韩、日本和东南亚)的能源传导冲击。
受长期房地产危机、以往股市重挫与可投资选项有限影响,更多投资者倾向政府债。由于资本外流受限,人民币主权债市场仍以国内投资者为主体,与其他主要债券市场的相关性偏低,形成较为封闭、隔离的市场。尽管如此,全球投资者仍持续关注与买入:Gavekal(Charles 与 Louis-Vincent Gave)指出,自2012 年起,CGBs是少数能长期跑赢美国通膨的政府债之一;同期日本、德国、英国等市场不只大幅实质亏损,亦出现名目负报酬。部分人也视中国货币政策较可预测:Wei Li 提及,人民银行可按政府需求调整降息以压低殖利率;而美国方面在Donald Trump持续施压Jay Powell 降息、且新主席上任方向不明的背景下,Fed政策不确定性较高,与政府债投资者偏好的稳定性不符。
Chinese government bonds have emerged as one of the few global havens since the Iran war began, as inflation has risen and energy prices have climbed. The 10-year China government bond yield has slipped to 1.81% since late February, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 0.38 percentage points to 4.34% and UK gilts rose 0.70 points, a move that normally means prices fell. Investors expect monetary authorities in the United States and Europe to keep rates higher for longer to fight inflation, so they are treating Chinese sovereign debt as relatively insulated.
Domestic demand has also protected the market because capital controls limit investors from moving money overseas, and therefore they are less exposed to the global bond sell-off. China’s 10-year yield had already fallen from above 4.7% in early 2014 to about 1.6% at the start of last year, a long rally that triggered earlier warnings of a possible bubble; the PBoC itself cautioned that a sudden reversal could threaten financial stability. Europe and much of Asia are seen as more vulnerable because they import more energy, but China’s energy mix with coal and renewables, together with large strategic reserves and access to discounted Russian oil and gas, has reduced inflation pass-through pressure.
A prolonged housing slump, memories of a severe stock bear market, and few alternatives have pushed investors toward sovereign bonds. The China bond market is relatively isolated because trapped domestic capital limits foreign correlation, yet global investors still participate; Gavekal’s Charles and Louis-Vincent Gave say that since 2012, CGBs have been one of the only government-bond areas able to outperform U.S. inflation, while major peers such as Japan, Germany and the UK have produced meaningful real losses and even negative nominal returns. Some investors also prefer the PBoC’s predictable stance, where policy can shift with official objectives to reduce yields, rather than what they see as uncertain Federal Reserve policy after Donald Trump’s pressure on Jay Powell and the risk of changes under a new Fed chair.