Pop Mart股价自8月高点下跌逾30%，其中自10月16日Bernstein给出“跑输”评级以来再跌约25%。此前自去年初至今年8月股价累计上涨超过1,500%。目前46名分析师中42名为“买入”、3名“持有”，仅1名给予“卖出”。空头仓位占自由流通股的2.8%，为自2024年4月以来最高。公司第三季虽超预期，但股价10月23日仍跌超9%。Labubu所在“Monsters”系列在2024年上半年占收入约35%，较去年同期14%显著攀升。

Bernstein预计Pop Mart今年营收增速将在145%见顶，随后利润率将因营销支出与海外扩张成本增加而回落。分析师指出核心问题在于公司能否摆脱对Labubu的高度依赖并靠其他IP驱动增长。JPMorgan认为“Twinkle Twinkle”粉丝基础真实，预计至2027年可贡献销售8%，较今年上半年的2.8%提升明显。然Bernstein质疑其他IP无法独立形成需求，也认为Labubu缺乏Hello Kitty与Barbie式长期稳定热度，因为其基于稀缺性、盲盒与投机行为，而非持续可得性。

市场分歧集中在投机周期风险。Labubu当前特征——稀缺驱动、二级市场炒作与多巴胺式购买——被指与1990年代Beanie Babies泡沫类似，该泡沫在1999年前后破裂并使玩具几乎无价值。分析师认为在缺乏策略性转型前，公司长期上涨空间有限。

Pop Mart shares have fallen more than 30% from their August peak, including a further ~25% drop since Bernstein initiated an underperform rating on October 16, after a rally exceeding 1,500% from early last year. Among 46 analysts, 42 rate the stock “buy,” three “hold,” and only one “sell.” Short interest has reached 2.8% of free float, the highest since April 2024. Despite a Q3 beat, shares fell over 9% on October 23. The “Monsters” line containing Labubu generated ~35% of first-half revenue, up from 14% a year earlier.

Bernstein estimates revenue growth will peak at 145% this year, with margins declining as marketing and overseas expansion costs rise. Analysts highlight dependence on Labubu as the key risk. JPMorgan argues “Twinkle Twinkle” has authentic traction and may reach 8% of sales by 2027, up from 2.8% in the first half. Bernstein remains unconvinced that other IPs can generate standalone demand and says Labubu lacks the durable, non-speculative accessibility seen in Hello Kitty and Barbie, whose popularity does not rely on scarcity or blind boxes.

Market debate centers on speculative-cycle risk. Labubu’s scarcity-driven demand, secondary-market intensity, and dopamine-style buying mimic the Beanie Babies bubble of the 1990s, which collapsed around 1999 and rendered most toys nearly worthless. Without strategic shifts, analysts argue the stock’s long-term upside is limited.