文章指出，任何乌克兰和平协议的核心都将是领土问题。俄罗斯目前控制了乌克兰近五分之一的国土，包括2014年吞并的克里米亚，以及2022年全面入侵后占领的顿涅茨克、卢甘斯克、赫尔松和扎波罗热部分地区。2022年9月，俄罗斯单方面宣布吞并其中四个地区，并在宪法中禁止放弃已宣称的领土。2025年11月提出的一份美俄28点和平方案要求乌克兰事实上承认克里米亚、顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克归属俄罗斯，并在其他地区沿现有接触线冻结控制权，引发基辅与欧洲盟友的强烈反对。
乌克兰总统泽连斯基多次强调不会在法律上承认任何被占领土为俄罗斯领土，援引1996年宪法中“领土不可分割、不可侵犯”的条款。但随着战争持续，立场在现实层面出现松动。民调显示，2022年5月有82%的乌克兰人反对任何领土让步，到2025年10月这一比例降至54%。乌方更倾向于在停火后、以当前前线为基础讨论安排，担忧若完全放弃顿涅茨克，将使主要防线“要塞带”暴露，增加未来再遭进攻的风险。
俄罗斯坚持控制相关地区既有战略也有经济动机。顿巴斯是乌克兰传统的煤炭和钢铁中心，乌克兰在2023年拥有全球第八大煤炭储量，其中大部分位于该地区；此外还蕴藏锂、钛、石墨和页岩气等资源。克里米亚则在历史、民族与军事上对莫斯科至关重要，既是黑海航运与粮食通道的关键节点，也是俄黑海舰队基地所在地。2018年启用的刻赤大桥为俄军提供了重要补给线，使克里米亚成为俄罗斯持续作战与施压乌克兰的核心支点。
The article argues that territory will be central to any Ukraine peace deal. Russia currently controls nearly one-fifth of Ukraine, including Crimea annexed in 2014 and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia occupied after the 2022 invasion. In September 2022, Moscow declared four regions annexed and amended its constitution to ban relinquishing claimed land. A 28-point US-Russia proposal in November 2025 called for Ukraine to effectively recognize Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk as Russian and freeze control elsewhere along current front lines, prompting strong opposition from Kyiv and European allies.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has repeatedly said Ukraine will never legally recognize occupied territory as Russian, citing the 1996 constitution’s declaration that Ukraine’s territory is indivisible and inviolable. Yet prolonged war has softened public attitudes. Polling shows opposition to territorial concessions fell from 82% in May 2022 to 54% by October 2025. Kyiv favors discussing arrangements only after a ceasefire at current lines, warning that surrendering all of Donetsk would expose Ukraine’s main fortified “fortress belt” and heighten the risk of renewed Russian advances.
Russia’s insistence on holding these areas reflects strategic and economic motives. The Donbas is Ukraine’s historic coal and steel heartland; in 2023 Ukraine held the world’s eighth-largest coal reserves, mostly in this region, alongside lithium, titanium, graphite, and shale gas potential. Crimea carries deep historical, ethnic, and military significance for Moscow, anchoring control of Black Sea shipping and hosting Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. The Kerch Bridge, opened in 2018, provides a vital logistics link, making Crimea a central platform for Russia’s ongoing war and leverage over Ukraine.