在 1 月 2 日，委内瑞拉总统 Nicolás Maduro 在加拉加斯 Miraflores Palace 会见中国代表团（含特使 Qiu Xiaoqi），视频中互赠礼物并以即将到来的马年开玩笑。数小时后，美方突击队据称将 Maduro 带往纽约受审；中国迅速谴责该行动，外长 Wang Yi 表示任何国家都不应充当“世界警察”。
经济层面核心数字是“依赖度下降”。2007 年双方建立“以油偿债”机制；过去 10 年中国对委内瑞拉石油依赖降低。尽管委内瑞拉仍将其超过一半的石油出口至中国，但这仅占中国供应量的 4%，且中国从俄罗斯与沙特进口更多。债务方面，委内瑞拉欠中国 100 亿至 200 亿美元，相对中国自 2000 年以来 2.2 万亿美元海外放贷规模只是很小比例。
技术与地缘政治层面呈“投入分散、边际收益有限、叙事收益上升”的趋势。中国参与卫星站与电信网络建设，ZTE Corp. 等企业深度介入；2020 年美国财政部制裁一家中国科技公司，2024 年 7 月又有中国 AI 公司与委方签署协议。即便美国迫使北京在委业务收缩，其收益仍被描述为小于在秘鲁港口、阿根廷与智利可再生能源、巴西电动车市场等布局；反而美方干预被专家视为在主权与国际法叙事上让中国获益，中国因此采取观望以应对资产处置或石油流中断的不确定性。
On Jan. 2, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro met a Chinese delegation in Caracas’s Miraflores Palace, including envoy Qiu Xiaoqi, exchanging gifts and joking about the coming Year of the Horse. Hours later, US commandos reportedly moved Maduro to New York City for trial; China swiftly condemned the operation, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi saying no country should act as the “world’s police.”
The key quantitative story is declining dependence. An oil-for-debt program began in 2007, but over the past decade China has become less reliant on Venezuelan crude. Although Venezuela still sends more than half its oil exports to China, that volume equals only 4% of China’s supply, with far larger imports from Russia and Saudi Arabia. Venezuela’s debt to China is put at $10 billion to $20 billion, tiny relative to China’s $2.2 trillion in overseas lending since 2000.
Technology and geopolitics show a trend of diversified exposure, modest marginal economics, and rising narrative upside. China helped build a satellite station and telecom networks, including work by firms such as ZTE Corp.; the US Treasury sanctioned a Chinese tech company in 2020, and in July a Chinese AI firm signed an agreement to build Venezuela’s AI capabilities. Even if US pressure reduced China’s Venezuela foothold, the text frames it as smaller than China’s interests elsewhere in Latin America (Peru port, renewables in Argentina and Chile, Brazil’s EV market); meanwhile, experts argue US intervention weakens sovereignty-based critiques and lets China appear steadier, so Beijing stays in a wait-and-see posture amid uncertainty over asset seizures or oil-flow disruptions.