英国没有可靠统计非法移民人数，估计约为100万，但保守党和改革党（Reform UK）都承诺在五年内分别遣返75万人和60万人。两份方案都很薄——保守党BORDERS 计划15页、改革党文件6页且有一半是照片——而两党主要将遣返视为法律问题，尽管这实际上需要远大得多的执行能力。
2024年英国约记录了34,000次遣返，其中约75%是自愿离境，形成3:1比率，并不能直接推到现行目标所暗示的每年至少12万人的规模。要达到这些目标，遣返中强制比例可能必须大幅提高，而强制遣返更昂贵且更困难。
内政部仅有最多30万人档案，并非都能被找到，要再找出另外30万人问题仍未解决，因为数据共享和人脸识别不足以解决。实现大规模遣返还需要大规模职场突查（自工党上台以来已上升77%）、建立类似ICE的机构、显著扩充执法人员并将拘留能力从不足3,000人提高到18个月内承诺的24,000人；并且在遣返协议上仍有瓶颈，尽管已与孟加拉和巴基斯坦签订并有阿尔巴尼亚模式，超过30%的小船入境者来自阿富汗和伊朗仍基本不可遣返，卢旺达方案仅接收4人却花费了7亿英镑。
Britain has no reliable count of illegal immigrants, with estimates around one million, yet the Conservatives and Reform UK are promising mass deportations of 750,000 and 600,000 people respectively over five years. Their plans are thin—15 pages for the Tories’ BORDERS programme and a six-page Reform document, half filled with photos—while both parties largely frame deportation as a legal problem despite it requiring far larger operational capacity.
In 2024 Britain recorded about 34,000 removals, but about 75% were voluntary, giving a 3:1 ratio that does not translate to the 120,000-plus annual scale implied by current targets. Achieving those targets would likely require a much higher share of enforced removals, which are costlier and harder.
The Home Office has records for at most 300,000 people, not necessarily traceable, and finding another 300,000 remains unresolved as data-sharing and facial recognition are not enough. Deportations would also require mass workplace raids (already 77% higher since Labour took office), an ICE-style agency, a much larger workforce, and detention space jumps from under 3,000 to a promised 24,000 in 18 months; and this is before the unresolved bottleneck of return agreements, where existing deals with Bangladesh and Pakistan plus the Albania model have not lifted removals, over 30% of small-boat arrivals from Afghanistan and Iran remain effectively non-deportable, and the Rwanda scheme returned only four people while costing £700m.
Source: Right-wingers want ICE-style mass deportations in Britain
Subtitle: Their plans are dangerously unrealistic
Dateline: 4月 01, 2026 03:21 上午