中国5月工厂活动放缓，官方制造业采购经理指数（PMI）由4月的50.3降至50，与彭博调查中位数一致；非制造业（建筑与服务）活动指数则由49.4升至50.1，略高于预期。5天假期带来的干扰、全球需求疲弱，以及中东冲突推高的投入成本，共同压抑了制造业表现，而50以下代表收缩。
在第一季强劲增长后，中国经济4月起显露走弱迹象，工业生产与零售销售录得多年来最弱增幅，促使市场呼吁更强政策支持。北京已开始回应：央行在5月把一年期政策性贷款利率降至纪录低位，同时推出城市公共服务开放计划，以改善流动人口取得学校与医疗的机会，并提振生活水平与消费。
尽管伊朗战争带来冲击，中国出口今年仍持续攀升；2025年贸易顺差创下1.2兆美元新高，2026年至今的航运量大多仍高于去年创纪录水平。高盛与野村估计，4月半导体、电脑及其他AI相关产品的海外销售约贡献出口增长的一半；但人民币走强正加重出口商压力，约5,500家境内上市企业中近四分之一在首季财报中提到外汇损失或汇率波动推高财务成本，为至少十年来最高比例。
China’s factory activity slowed in May, with the official manufacturing PMI slipping from 50.3 in April to 50, matching the Bloomberg median forecast. The non-manufacturing gauge for construction and services improved to 50.1 from 49.4, slightly above expectations, while readings below 50 still signal contraction. The data point to renewed softness after a strong first quarter, as a five-day holiday, weaker global demand, and higher input costs from the Middle East conflict weighed on activity.
China’s economy showed broad cooling in April, when industrial production and retail sales posted their weakest gains in years. In response, policymakers moved to support growth: the central bank cut the one-year policy loan rate to a record low in May, and authorities unveiled a plan to expand migrant workers’ access to urban public services such as schools and health care. The measures suggest Beijing is trying to shore up consumption and living standards as momentum fades. (Key numbers: 4, 5)
Exports remain a bright spot, despite war-related disruptions and a stronger yuan. China posted a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025, and shipping volumes in 2026 have mostly stayed above last year’s record pace, helped by demand for data centers and power equipment tied to the global AI buildout. Goldman Sachs and Nomura estimate AI-related exports accounted for about half of April export growth, but nearly a quarter of about 5,500 onshore-listed firms reported foreign-exchange losses or currency-driven cost pressures in first-quarter earnings, the highest share in at least a decade.