因关税依产品与来源地而异，加上驱逐执法风险，企业在得知税负是否持续、是否获豁免、或是否被推翻之前，会延后定价与供应链调整。Peterson Institute for International Economics 的研究预测，宏观数据至少要延迟一年才会显示损害。Adam S. Posen 预估 2026 年第 3 季消费者产品通膨为 4% 以上，高于 11 月（最新）的 2.7%。贸易战前的进口囤货已大致耗尽，推动成本转嫁。
在移民方面，政府声称第一年约驱逐 100 万人，但高度依赖无证劳工的产业（health/child care、agriculture、food processing、residential construction）就业仍几乎持平，薪资未加速，亦未见由有证工人明显替代。机器人与机械尚非具成本效率的替代品，因此后续的劳动短缺将推升薪资与通膨；home health-care 成本正以 12% 年率上升。投资呈分裂：AI 资本支出推动 2025 年第 2–3 季 GDP，而其他部分接近零，因管理者在高度不确定下削减不可逆投资，类比 UK 在 2016 Brexit 公投后的情况。
Published 2026-01-13 20:00 GMT+8 (UTC+8; original: 8:00 PM GMT+8), the article says markets misread the US economy by treating Donald Trump’s tariff and deportation uncertainty as harmless. They cite inflation that eased in 2025 and GDP growth at a 4.3% annual pace (reported 2025-12-23), fastest in two years. The claim is that policy-driven uncertainty hits with long lags, while AI investment masks early stagflation, becoming hard to miss by April 2, 2026.
Tariffs that vary by product and origin, plus deportation enforcement risk, delay pricing and supply-chain shifts until firms know whether duties persist, are exempted, or are overturned. Peterson Institute for International Economics work predicted at least a one-year delay before macro data show the damage. Adam S. Posen projects consumer-product inflation at 4%+ by 2026 Q3, up from 2.7% in November (latest). Pre-tariff import stockpiles are largely exhausted, pushing cost pass-through.
On immigration, the administration claims about 1 million deportations in year one, yet employment in undocumented-labor-heavy sectors (health/child care, agriculture, food processing, residential construction) stays essentially flat, with no wage acceleration and no obvious replacement by documented workers. Robots and machines are not cost-efficient substitutes, so later shortages raise wages and inflation; home health-care costs are rising at a 12% annual rate. Investment splits: AI capex drove 2025 Q2–Q3 GDP, while the rest is near zero, as managers cut irreversible spending under elevated uncertainty, echoing the UK after the 2016 Brexit vote.
