美军在加拉加斯的突袭行动成功拘捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗，且「未传出」美方死亡，凸显情报锁定与精准打击能力。作者认为这让特朗普的「门罗主义延伸」更具可信度；自其于2025年就任以来，他以多种手段重申美国在美洲的主导，包括对巴拿马施压、支持阿根廷与萨尔瓦多的友好领袖、加大对马杜罗的胁迫，以及对疑似毒贩进行致命打击。

行动同时延续了他偏好的战法：以保密、误导与突袭把冲突的起止时间掌握在自己手中。文章把此与2025年6月对伊朗核设施的行动相提并论，并指出外界一度传出仅会封锁委内瑞拉石油或准备谈判，可能都是为了让马杜罗松懈。作者也强调俄中虽谴责主权受侵、长期支撑马杜罗，但在西半球面对美国投送力量时能做的有限。

后续的不确定性更「数字化」地体现在治理与竞争的时间尺度上：这是「换领导」未必「换体制」，而民主转型可能因近30年的查韦斯主义遗产而漫长混乱；同时，中国在拉美投入已逾数十年，象征包括秘鲁巨型港口与玻利维亚大型太空追踪站，且警务与安全合作扩张。北京在2025年12月发布政策文件宣称力量天平在改变；作者担心美国以起诉为由、并援引1989年巴拿马案例的先例，未来可能被他国模仿（如对台湾）。

A U.S. raid in Caracas captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro with no reported U.S. fatalities, showcasing intelligence, precision strike capability, and President Donald Trump’s Monroe-Doctrine-style warning to hostile leaders. Since taking office in 2025, Trump has used pressure on Panama, support for friendly rulers in Argentina and El Salvador, escalating coercion against Maduro, and lethal strikes on suspected narco-traffickers to reassert U.S. primacy in the hemisphere.

The operation also reflects Trump’s preferred way of war: secrecy, misdirection, and surprise to control when conflicts start and end. The piece draws a parallel to the June 2025 strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and suggests talk of merely blockading Venezuelan oil or negotiating may have been intended to lull Maduro. It argues Russia and China can protest sovereignty violations but cannot meaningfully counter U.S. power projection in the Western Hemisphere.

Strategic questions remain on longer timelines: leadership change is not regime change, and a democratic transition could be prolonged and messy after nearly 30 years of Chavismo. Meanwhile, China has spent decades building influence through trade, infrastructure, and security ties, symbolized by mega-ports in Peru and a large space-tracking station in Bolivia; a December 2025 policy paper claims global power trends favor Beijing. The author warns that a precedent justified by a U.S. indictment—and likened to the 1989 Panama/Noriega case—could be emulated by rivals, potentially against Taiwan.