文章以 2025-12-25 的报导为背景，指出直布罗陀海峡下方的「直布罗陀弧」板块边界在长期停滞后，可能于约 2000 万年后加速并向西侵入大西洋，逐步建立新的隐没系统，启动大洋由成熟走向收缩的漫长倒数。

研究由里斯本大学的 João C. Duarte 领导，并与美因兹团队在 2024 年的同侪审查论文中讨论其物理机制；分析采用重力驱动的三维数值模拟，测试「停滞弧」是否能在克服岩石圈阻力后重启并穿透较强的洋壳，形成半圆形前缘向洋盆推进并回收海底。

地质学以威尔逊循环描述海洋在数亿年尺度上的开启—成熟—闭合；文中也回顾 2013 年工作提出直布罗陀弧与伊比利亚西南缘可能机械相连。近端风险方面，变化不会在任何人类时间框架内让海峡消失，但 1755 年里斯本地震与海啸提醒：即使是缓慢聚合边界，也可能以极长的复发间隔产生罕见却高冲击事件；目前板块仍以「每年几英吋」而非「每十年几英里」的速度移动。

Dated 12-25-2025, the piece argues that the undersea plate boundary beneath the Strait of Gibraltar (the Gibraltar arc) may restart after a long lull and migrate westward into the Atlantic, with acceleration expected in roughly 20 million years. That shift would initiate a new subduction system and mark a turning point in the Atlantic’s long lifecycle toward eventual closure rather than a sudden near-term change.

Led by University of Lisbon tectonics professor João C. Duarte, the work (described as a 2024 peer-reviewed study with a Lisbon–Mainz team) uses gravity-driven, 3D simulations to test whether a stalled arc can overcome lithospheric resistance and penetrate stronger oceanic crust. The scenario treats Gibraltar as a hinge that can stall, then re-couple once driving forces—such as slab pull and reorganized compressive stress—surpass resistance, producing a semicircular front that progressively recycles seafloor.

The broader frame is the Wilson cycle, where oceans open, mature, and close over hundreds of millions of years, and subduction zones can appear at basin margins and relocate into nearby oceans; the article cites prior 2013 work suggesting mechanical linkage between the Gibraltar arc and the SW Iberia margin. For hazards, it stresses geologic timescales: the strait will not vanish on any human timeline, yet the 1755 Lisbon earthquake and tsunami show slow margins can still deliver rare, high-impact shocks with long recurrence intervals, while today’s motion remains inches per year, not miles per decade.