如果马斯克控制的SpaceX（火箭制造、网络、AI实验室和社交网络业务）在约2000亿美元估值下募集约750亿美元，其IPO在金融上将等同于“登陆火星”。文章显示华尔街已经把很多大型上市公司按间接SpaceX仓位重估，投资者也在为OpenAI与Anthropic这类即将上市公司下注，而这些企业故事同样在牵动相关股票。 特斯拉是最典型的代理标的；尽管只持有一小部分SpaceX股份。 其一部分原因是一些分析师甚至猜测会出现一个假设性的“企业融合体”，将特斯拉硬件、SpaceX软件和马斯克叙事拼接在一起。
Alphabet持有的6% SpaceX股份是其资产负债表上1070亿美元私人股份的一部分，并在最新季度贡献了近一半税前利润，而EchoStar之所以被纳入标普500，主要是因为它将通过出让频谱许可证换得约110亿美元的SpaceX股票。 更小规模的通道也显示同样的外溢效应：X Max仅有1700万美元年收入，却在叠加与SpaceX相关的SPV结构后市值接近3.8亿美元；Jet.AI市值仍低于其披露的500万美元SpaceX持仓，Mirae股价今年几乎翻三倍，而且某大型ETF最大的持仓本身也是持有SpaceX股票的SPV。
更宏观的数据更清晰：自1990年代末以来，美国上市公司数量几乎持续下降而利润上升，ETF数量已超过上市公司总数，市场正朝向少数巨头高度集中与投机化发展。OpenAI未达预期甚至令SoftBank市值下跌约10%，这类波动说明市场定价正在由一小组企业主导。
If SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket maker, internet provider, AI lab, and social-network empire, were to raise around $75bn at roughly a $2tn valuation, its IPO would be the financial equivalent of “landing on Mars.” The article shows Wall Street has already been repricing major public companies as indirect SpaceX exposures, while investors are also betting on OpenAI and Anthropic IPO narratives that are moving related public stocks.
Tesla is the clearest proxy despite owning only a sliver of SpaceX, and analysts even speculate about a hypothetical merged “Musk Inc” combining Tesla hardware, SpaceX software, and Musk-branded narrative overlap. Alphabet’s 6% SpaceX stake is part of $107bn in private shares on its balance sheet and contributed nearly half of its latest-quarter pre-tax profit, while EchoStar was included in the S&P 500 mainly because it is set to receive about $11bn of SpaceX stock for spectrum licences.
Smaller channels show the same spillover: X Max, with only $17m in annual revenue, now has a market value near $380m after stacking SPV structures linked to SpaceX; Jet.AI is still valued below the $5m of SpaceX equity it discloses, and Mirae’s shares have almost tripled this year. The broader data are clearer still—listed U.S. firms have declined almost continuously since the late 1990s while profits rose, ETFs now outnumber listed firms, and OpenAI missing expectations has knocked SoftBank down by around 10%, showing concentration and speculation around a tiny set of giant firms.
Source: Punter's paradise
Subtitle: SpaceX, Open AI and Anthropic are already public companies
Dateline: The Economist May 2nd 2026