10年期日本国债殖利率上升0.035个百分点并突破2%，为2006年以来首次，并逼近1990年代以来高位；近期多年的高点也受升息预期与对首相早苗高市支出计划可能扩大财政压力的担忧推动。日圆在公布后先对美元走弱0.3%至156.08，随后回升至155.85；市场评论认为声明不够鹰派，升息未必能明显推升日圆。
通膨数据支持升息：整体CPI已连续3年多高于2%的目标，11月扣除生鲜食品的物价较去年同期上升3%。日银指出劳动市场在少子高龄、人口缩减下仍偏紧，企业获利强、明年加薪「高度可能」，物价将温和上升；即使升息后实质利率仍「显著为负」，金融环境仍偏宽松。交易员关注植田在记者会上对2026年升息路径提供更多清晰度。
The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to around 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, while signaling it could hike further if the economy evolves as expected. The move was a unanimous decision and the fourth rate increase under Governor Kazuo Ueda, continuing the normalization process launched last year after unusually clear pre-meeting guidance.
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose 0.035 percentage points to above 2% for the first time since 2006, moving toward levels last seen in the 1990s; recent multi-year highs also reflect fiscal concerns tied to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s spending plans. The yen initially weakened 0.3% to ¥156.08 per dollar after the decision, then strengthened to ¥155.85, with analysts noting the statement was less hawkish than some expected and may not lift the yen much.
Inflation remains the key driver: headline CPI has been above the BOJ’s 2% target for more than three years, and November CPI excluding fresh food rose 3% year on year. The BOJ said labor conditions remain tight amid a shrinking population, profits should stay strong, and firms are highly likely to raise wages next year; even after the hike, real rates are expected to stay significantly negative, keeping financial conditions accommodative. Markets are watching for clearer guidance on the 2026 path at Ueda’s press conference.
