自1955年成立以来，自民党（LDP）几乎一直主导日本政治，仅有两次短暂中断；在2月8日的突然选举中，自民党以近70%的众议院席位取得迄今最压倒性的胜利，为首位领导民主日本的女性首相高市早苗提供了历史性授权。自民党在众议院共465席中赢得316席，较此前的198席增加118席，从而获得可在其不控制参议院的情况下仍可推翻其决定的三分之二超级多数。
在安全与外交上，她已将原定于2027年实现的国防开支提升至GDP的2%的计划提前到本财年，但这一比例仍被认为不足；同时，日本被鼓励在依赖美国核保护伞的同时“与美国合作、也能绕开美国”，并推动将CPTPP与欧盟连接，形成覆盖全球产出30%以上的贸易集团。她对打破禁忌（包括讨论核武器）以及放松国防产业、推动防务创新与增强情报能力的姿态，被视为适应更强战略压力的关键。
在国内，人口萎缩与老龄化被描述为增长的主要拖累，迫使在社会保障、就业制度与吸引移民方面进行结构性调整，同时在国防与福利支出上升之际安抚市场并考虑逐步兑现海外资产以降低总债务。主要风险包括民族主义与社会保守主义引发的对外关系与反移民反弹，以及财政扩张带来的通胀与债市恐慌；其中一项明确考验是兑现“暂停食品8%消费税两年且不新增债务”的竞选承诺，否则需找到资金来源或放弃。
Since its founding in 1955, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has dominated Japanese politics with only two brief interruptions; in the February 8 snap election it won nearly 70% of lower-house seats, giving Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae, the first woman to lead democratic Japan, an unusually large mandate. The LDP captured 316 of 465 seats, up from 198 (a gain of 118), securing a two-thirds supermajority that can override an upper house it does not control.
On security and diplomacy, she has already pulled forward a planned rise in defence spending to 2% of GDP from 2027 to the current fiscal year, yet the argument is that even 2% is not enough; Japan is urged to both work with America’s nuclear umbrella and, when needed, work around America. A concrete ambition is to link the CPTPP with the European Union, creating a trade bloc covering over 30% of global output, alongside breaking taboos (including talk of nuclear weapons) and pushing defence-industry liberalisation, innovation, and stronger intelligence.
At home, a shrinking and ageing population is framed as the main drag on growth, implying hard reforms to social security, employment practices, and migration policy while reassuring markets as defence and welfare outlays rise and considering gradual profit-taking on overseas assets to reduce gross debt. The biggest risks are nationalist or socially conservative moves that inflame regional ties and repel migrants, plus fiscal looseness that stokes inflation and scares bondholders; a key test is a pledge to suspend the 8% sales tax on food for two years without issuing new debt, which would require a credible funding source or abandonment.
Source: The world’s most powerful woma
Subtitle: Japan’s prime minister has earned a once-in-a-generation chance to remake her country. Will she seize it?
Dateline: 2月 12, 2026 06:37 上午