一年过去后，阿尔伯塔分离主义从高点回落：2025年5月民调显示Wexit支持率为47%，而后在2026年初以来只有一项民调仍高于30%。在省长丹妮尔·史密斯将公投门槛降至177,732签名后，分离主义者在5月2日截止日前称已收集到超过178,000个签名，目标是推动10月公投。

阿尔伯塔约有500万居民且属于全国较富裕地区之一，油气财富与“独立”身份叙事加剧了其与以东部大城市为核心的自由党联邦政府矛盾。即便如此，地面动员的强度并不稳定：卡尔加里一处周末签名点一小时多一点只新增6人签名，且车流鸣笛支持常伴随“叛徒”指责。

分离势头再度受挫，部分源于特朗普因素：杰弗里·拉特在福克斯新闻提出阿尔伯塔加入美国或成为第51州等说法，却被不少Wexit者视作不可接受。与此并行的法律与外交压力更大，主要包括原住民权利争议、4月10日针对签名认证的一个月暂停，以及若法庭认定独立侵犯条约权利则可能直接阻断公投。

A year later, Alberta separatist momentum has fallen: a May 2025 poll put Wexit support at 47%, and since early 2026 only one poll has risen above 30%. After Premier Danielle Smith lowered the petition threshold to 177,732 signatures, separatists said they had collected more than 178,000 signatures by the May 2 deadline to trigger a possible October referendum.

Alberta has about 5 million people and is among Canada’s wealthier provinces, where oil wealth and identity politics sharpen resentment toward a Liberal federal center in eastern cities. Even so, street-level mobilization is uneven: at one Calgary Saturday station, little more than an hour yielded only six new signatures, while cheering horns from passing drivers were often paired with “traitor” accusations.

Momentum is also stalling for controversial reasons: Jeffrey Rath’s Fox News suggestions that Alberta join the U.S. economically or become the 51st state were rejected as unpalatable by many Wexiters, while legal and constitutional risks are growing. Prime Minister Carney’s support for expanding oil and gas output has not ended uncertainty over tariffs and referendum risk, and a one-month court pause on signature certification starting April 10 plus unresolved First Nations treaty rights could ultimately block the path to a referendum.

Source: Albertans find it harder than expected to break from Canada. Good

Subtitle: Separatists in the oil-rich province are beset by political and legal challenges

Dateline: 4月 23, 2026 03:40 上午 | CALGARY