Canada（Sandoz 指为 semaglutide 第二大市场）被视为早期压力测试：data exclusivity 已于 2026-01-04 到期；按政府框架，当市场出现 3 家竞争者时折扣将达 65%。但学名药不会即刻成形：Sandoz 由原先预期 2026 上半年改为 2026 第三季；Health Canada 因申请积压，现正审查 9 件 semaglutide 学名药申请。
India 与 China 的量价重估最关键。Nomura 估 India 起始约 40 美元/月，随产量上升落在 15–30 美元/月；Dr Reddy’s 以 87 个市场为目标。China 至少 10 家提交仿制申请；若纳入政府集采，历史上部分药价可被削减最高 90%，Goldman Sachs 估 semaglutide 约 50 美元/月。供应端亦受限：一间原料供应商预期年需求到 2026 年底达 240 kg（原文 240 kilograms），高于上一年的 10 kg（原文 10 kilograms），约 24 倍；短缺延伸至笔型注射器零件与橡胶塞。
Semaglutide (the key ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy) is going off-patent outside the US and UK, affecting countries that contain about one-third of the world’s adults with obesity (IQVIA). That sets up regulated generic competition against Novo Nordisk’s roughly $30 billion weight-loss/diabetes franchise; semaglutide shots are nearly two-thirds of its sales and often cost users hundreds of dollars per month. A price war could push monthly costs as low as $15 in some markets; an India clinician says costs keep over half of middle-class patients from buying.
Canada (called the No. 2 semaglutide market by Sandoz) is an early test: data exclusivity expired on 2026-01-04. Under policy, discounts reach 65% once there are three competitors. But rollout is delayed: Sandoz shifted from expecting H1 2026 to Q3 2026, and Health Canada—facing an application backlog—has nine generic semaglutide submissions under review.
India and China concentrate the biggest price-reset dynamics. Nomura expects India to start near $40/month, then settle at $15–$30/month as volumes rise; Dr Reddy’s targets 87 markets. In China, at least 10 copycats have filed; procurement can historically cut some drug prices by up to 90%, and Goldman Sachs expects semaglutide around $50/month. Supply is constrained: one ingredient producer projects annual demand reaching 240 kg (original 240 kilograms) by end-2026, up from 10 kg (original 10 kilograms) last year (~24×), with shortages extending to pen components and rubber stoppers.