这可以被称为「IPO 准备季」。OpenAI 刚完成 1220 亿美元（US$122 billion，约 1.22×10^11 美元）的融资，估值升至 8520 亿美元（US$852 billion，约 8.52×10^11 美元），明确冲刺 2026 年底至 2027 年初的上市节点。然而压力同时上升：ChatGPT 在消费者市场已被 Google 的 Gemini 追近，而企业市场也被 Anthropic 压缩；Anthropic 推出 Claude Cowork 的关注与市场紧张感，进一步放大了竞争压力。
文章将 Sam Altman 的策略比作过度分散，从购物整合到 Sora 影片生成都一度过度投入。最终 OpenAI 在上月停止 Sora，并取消与 Walt Disney 有关的 10 亿美元（US$1 billion）承诺，显示其正转向集中资源。其新模型 Spud 以原本 Sora 的算力为基础，搭建被称为 unified AI superapp 的系统，将 ChatGPT 对话、程式撰写与浏览整合成跨应用、跨工作流的任务执行平台；不过西方用户长期以 App 分工为习惯，与亚洲 WeChat/Alipay 式超级应用生态仍有文化落差。
Anthropic 也用 Capybara 与 Claude Cowork 竞进，对 OpenAI 的时间窗形成直接压力，但 OpenAI 的关键仍是通路：四分之三 Fortune 500 企业使用含 Copilot 的 Microsoft 365。OpenAI 每周有 9 亿用户，而 Microsoft 365 工具月活约 4.5 亿，用户量是 2:1，但消费端用户同时意味著巨额算力支出。OpenAI 表示每月营收 20 亿美元（US$2 billion），同时预估到 2029 年前仍会燃烧 1150 亿美元（US$115 billion）现金，因此与 Microsoft 在 Copilot 上更紧密协作、共同完成代理型任务与任务流程化，可能比孤军推进 superapp 更有利于 IPO。
This is an IPO-prep season for large AI firms. OpenAI recently closed a US$122 billion funding round, putting its valuation at US$852 billion, and has set an apparent timeline toward a possible IPO in late 2026 or early 2027. Competitive pressure is rising at the same time: ChatGPT has been losing consumer share to Google’s Gemini, and Anthropic’s momentum around Claude Cowork has narrowed enterprise opportunities for OpenAI.
Sam Altman is portrayed as having overextended into too many initiatives, from shopping features to Sora video generation, then reversed course by discontinuing Sora and backing away from a US$1 billion Disney-linked investment. The computing resources previously tied to Sora are now directed to Spud, positioned as a unified AI superapp that combines ChatGPT chat, coding, and browsing into one workflow-centric system. OpenAI’s stated thesis is that users want one assistant spanning tasks, yet such a superapp model remains less certain in Western markets where app specialization habits are stronger than in Asian ecosystems.
Anthropic remains a direct competitor with Capybara and a strong Claude Cowork-style desktop agent, increasing execution pressure on OpenAI. OpenAI’s structural leverage is still its partnership with Microsoft: 75% of Fortune 500 firms use Microsoft 365, which now includes Copilot by default. OpenAI has 900 million weekly users versus roughly 450 million Microsoft 365 users, a 2:1 ratio, but consumer scale carries large compute costs. OpenAI reports US$2 billion in monthly revenue while expecting US$115 billion in cash burn through 2029. Given Microsoft already deploying Anthropic’s Claude in Copilot for multi-step tasks and fact-checking GPT outputs, deeper product integration rather than an isolated superapp race may be a safer path to profitable scale and IPO readiness.