2025年对中国经济而言几乎怎么看都很艰难：持续的房地产危机拖累约19万亿美元的经济体，中美关税战忽冷忽热冲击企业与市场；即使出口走强，增长与制造业仍显吃力。企业为了更便宜、更快地扩产而加剧「内卷」，过度供给与价格战挤压利润，威胁多个关键产业的可持续性。

震荡也更直接落在刚入职场的年轻人与想改善生活的伴侣身上。一些地区的青年失业率卡在两位数；即使有工作，越来越多人也表达买不起房、难以成家。生育率连续三年下滑，让老龄化背景下本就「缺工」的经济承受更大压力。

但在若干关键领域，中国仍能追上或超过美国，凸显美方「卡脖子」的边界。对美贸易明显受挫：11月对美出货下降29%，且已是连续第8个月出现两位数下滑；同时中国透过增加对欧洲、拉美与其他地区出口来对冲损失，仅11月对非洲出口就接近增长28%，使2025年年度贸易顺差首次突破1万亿美元。中国在电动车、电池、光伏等新能源供应链上领先，其电网级锂离子电池在2025年1—7月约占美国同类进口的65%；在先进AI晶片受限之下，本土造芯、AI相关专利产出与量子计算追赶也在缩小差距。

In 2025, China’s $19 trillion economy faced a property crisis, tariff volatility with the US, and weak growth and manufacturing even as exports surged. Intensifying “involution” pushed firms into overproduction and price wars, squeezing margins and threatening key industries.

The strain hit households, especially young workers and couples. In some regions youth unemployment stayed in the double digits, while employed graduates complained they still could not afford housing or to start families. The birth rate fell for a third straight year, worsening pressures from an aging population and a workforce-hungry economy.

Trade with the US slumped—shipments fell 29% in November, the eighth month of double‑digit declines—but China offset losses by expanding exports to Europe, Latin America, and Africa (up nearly 28% in November), pushing the 2025 trade surplus above $1 trillion. China also advanced in clean-energy supply chains: its grid‑scale lithium‑ion batteries made up about 65% of US imports from January–July 2025, while domestic chip efforts, AI‑patent output, and rapid quantum‑computing catch‑up narrowed the gap.