韩国市场呈现出独特的现象:受惠于三星电子与SK海力士等记忆体晶片巨头的获利激增,其预测本益比偏低,但若采用历史常态获利的Cape指标来看,其估值却高达35倍,显示出估值依然偏高且存在公司治理方面的隐忧。
文章最后指出,若AI在未来能兑现其经济承诺,高估值将不足为虑;然而若AI投资的回报率低于预期,这些重度依赖AI的市场可能会面临大幅度的主力修正调整。
This article analyzes global market valuations, highlighting that the tech- and AI-heavy US and Taiwan markets appear expensive on both forward and historical Cape measures compared to other regions, while the UK and Europe look cheap.
Korea stands out as an interesting outlier with a low forward P/E ratio due to skyrocketing projected earnings of Samsung and SK Hynix, but its Cape ratio of 35 remains high, partly reflecting persistent corporate governance concerns.
The author concludes that high valuations will not be a concern if AI delivers on its economic promises, but AI-heavy markets could face significant corrections if the returns on AI investments turn out to be low.