NOAA 宣布 El Niño 已于 2026年6月11日 正式开始，其定义为东部热带太平洋海水异常偏暖。NOAA 的门槛是在 NINO3.4 区域连续三个月高于平均 1°F（0.5°C）。近期太平洋迅速跨过此线，且东部热带太平洋海平面因西风堆水上升最多 7英寸（18厘米）。

今年事件可能特别强。NOAA 估计其有 63% 机率超过 3.6°F（2°C）门槛，达到 super El Niño；部分气候模型甚至预测可能超过 5.4°F（3°C），将成为有记录以来最强。更暖海水会改变区域大气，增加美国西南部湿天气机率，降低 Atlantic 飓风季活跃机率，并提高 Indonesia 与非洲 Sahel 地区干旱风险。

历史上的四次 super El Niño 均造成广泛冲击：1982-83 事件使 Lake Mead 溢流；1997-98 造成 Indonesia 有记录以来最严重干旱；2023-24 导致 Southern Africa 百年来最严重干旱，6100万人需要粮食援助。因人类历史上全球已处于最高温背景，2026-27 年可能出现额外升温脉冲，并使珊瑚礁承受更大热压力。

NOAA announced that El Niño officially began on June 11, 2026, defined by unusually warm water in the eastern tropical Pacific. NOAA’s threshold is temperatures in the NINO3.4 region staying 1°F (0.5°C) above average for three months. The Pacific recently crossed that line rapidly, while sea levels in the eastern tropical Pacific rose by up to 7 inches (18 centimeters) as westerly winds piled water there.

This year’s event may be especially strong. NOAA estimates a 63 percent chance that it will exceed the 3.6°F (2°C) threshold for a super El Niño; some climate models even project it could surpass 5.4°F (3°C), making it the strongest on record. Warmer ocean water alters regional atmosphere patterns, raising odds of wet weather in the US Southwest, lowering odds of an active Atlantic hurricane season, and increasing drought risks in Indonesia and Africa’s Sahel region.

The four previous super El Niños all caused widespread impacts: the 1982-83 event made Lake Mead overflow; 1997-98 produced Indonesia’s worst recorded drought; and 2023-24 brought Southern Africa’s worst drought in 100 years, leaving 61 million people needing food assistance. Because the planet is already at its hottest level in human history, 2026-27 may see an added warming pulse and greater heat stress on coral reefs.