在全球地缘政治紧张局势加剧的背景下，美国的盟友和对手都得出了一个冷酷的结论：赢得总统唐纳德·特朗普尊重的关键是展示出能让他蒙受经济损失的能力。在拥有2400万人口且中国声称拥有主权的民主岛屿台湾，政策讨论已转向利用其战略资产作为筹码。历史上，台湾的生存依赖于美国是否会派第七舰队实施防御的“战略模糊”。然而，特朗普不可预测的态度——包括嘲笑台湾在军事上处于劣势、附和中国的言论、指责台湾总统赖清德挑衅，以及暗示军售只是贸易谈判筹码——这使台湾官员深感担忧，迫使其重新审视防御战略。

台湾传统上依靠其在“第一岛链”的地理位置以及在半导体制造领域的绝对主导地位（生产全球约90%的最先进芯片）作为“硅盾”，以防止被美国遗弃或遭到中国攻击。然而，这种主导地位正受到国际合作伙伴日益增加的担忧，他们不愿依赖一个易受台风和地震影响的岛屿。台积电（TSMC）面临着在美国（如亚利桑那州和德克萨斯州）、德国和日本建设晶圆厂的巨大压力。特朗普甚至指责台湾几十年前偷走了美国的芯片产业，这引发了台北方面对随着顶尖工程人才流失到国外运营晶圆厂，其硅盾将逐步被削弱的担忧。

因此，一些台湾战略家建议在危机期间将“硅盾”转化为一种具有胁迫力的经济武器。如果中国封锁能源进口，几乎所有原材料和能源都依赖进口的台湾将面临严重的电力短缺，迫使其停止芯片出口以优先保障国内民生服务。这将立即使全球供应链和市场陷入混乱，从而起到强大的威慑作用。尽管悲观主义者担心特朗普可能会排除台湾并与中国谈判以迫使其投降，但乐观主义者认为，美国对AI霸权的追求使得容忍中国控制全球最关键的芯片制造商成为不可能，这为台湾提供了维持美国威慑的关键筹码。

Amid rising global geopolitical tension, both U.S. allies and adversaries are concluding that the key to earning President Donald Trump's respect is demonstrating the capacity to inflict economic pain. In Taiwan, a democratic island of 24 million people claimed by China, policy discussions have turned to using its strategic assets as leverage. Historically, Taiwan’s survival has depended on strategic ambiguity regarding whether the U.S. Seventh Fleet would defend it. However, Trump’s unpredictable stance—which includes mocking Taiwan as outgunned, parroting Chinese talking points, accusing Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te of provocation, and suggesting arms sales are merely trade bargaining chips—has deeply alarmed Taiwanese officials, forcing them to reconsider their defense strategies.

Taiwan has traditionally relied on its geographic position in the "first island chain" and its dominance in semiconductor manufacturing—producing approximately 90% of the world's most advanced chips—as a "Silicon Shield" to prevent abandonment by the U.S. or attack by China. However, this dominance is viewed with growing concern by international partners who dislike relying on a typhoon- and earthquake-prone island. Pressure has mounted on TSMC to construct fabs in the U.S. (in states like Arizona and Texas), Germany, and Japan. Trump has even accused Taiwan of stealing the American chip industry, prompting concerns in Taipei about the erosion of their silicon shield as top engineering talent is sent abroad to operate foreign facilities.

Looking ahead, some Taiwanese strategists suggest turning the silicon shield into a coercive economic weapon during a crisis. If China blocks energy imports, Taiwan, which imports almost all its raw materials and energy, would face severe power shortages, forcing a halt to chip exports to prioritize domestic civilian services. This would instantly plunge global supply chains and markets into chaos, serving as a powerful deterrent. While pessimists fear Trump might exclude Taiwan and negotiate a surrender to China, optimists argue that America's pursuit of AI dominance makes allowing China to control the world's most vital chipmakers impossible, giving Taiwan a critical bargaining chip to maintain U.S. deterrence.

Source: Allies learn how to bully America

Subtitle: Can Taiwan use its chipmaking industry to strong-arm Donald Trump?

Dateline: Jul 02, 2026 06:22 AM