美国公共债务被描述为其占 GDP 的比重正接近战时水平，同时投资者越来越质疑美国财政能力是否足以支撑与经常账户赤字相关的负债。文章称，Donald Trump 的第二个任期助长了对主权债券作为安全、无风险资产这一看法的削弱，削弱了美国国债被认为具有的对冲角色，并且尽管美国与 G10 之间的利率差对美国有利，市场对美元作为储备货币的首要地位仍出现了更强烈的怀疑。
GlobalDataTS Lombard 的 Davide Oneglia 表示，日元下跌与以往避险情绪升温时的表现相反，而且它与其他关键资产价格的历史相关性已经转变，导致对冲属性减弱。他将此归因于与首相 Sanae Takaichi 竞选承诺相关的债务可持续性担忧，以及日本在长期通缩后日本银行推进利率正常化；他还说，避险资产排名已转向瑞士法郎、新加坡元、黄金和德国国债。文中还称，美国国债市场也在适应量化紧缩和储备管理者需求走弱，而便利收益与股债对冲收益都已下降。
根据 State Street，去年上半年美国投资者通过下调外汇对冲比率推动了大规模美元抛售：从 2025 年初约 25 per cent 降到略高于 12 per cent，文章称这相当于“超过减半”。文中引用 Pimco 的 Marc Seidner 和 Pramol Dhawan 在 2024 年的一份注释：美国是公共部门相对私人部门的结构性空头，而欧洲则相反；美国偏股票敞口，欧洲偏债务敞口。文中还引用 UBS Global Investment Returns Year Book（Elroy Dimson、Paul Marsh、Mike Staunton），称历史上债券回撤通常比股票回撤更大和/或持续更久，并称自 July 2020 起的美国债券回撤造成了 51 per cent 的实际亏损。
US public debt is described as approaching wartime levels as a share of GDP, while investors increasingly question US fiscal capacity to support liabilities linked to current account deficits. The article says Donald Trump’s second term has helped undermine the view of sovereign bonds as safe, risk-free assets, weakened the perceived hedge role of US Treasuries, and intensified doubts about the dollar’s reserve-currency pre-eminence despite a favorable US–G10 interest-rate differential.
Davide Oneglia of GlobalDataTS Lombard says the yen’s decline was the opposite of prior risk-off behavior, and that its historical correlation with other key asset prices has shifted, weakening hedging properties. He attributes this to debt-sustainability concerns tied to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election promises and to Bank of Japan rate normalization after long deflation, and says haven rankings have shifted toward the Swiss franc, Singaporean dollar, gold, and German Bunds. The US Treasury market is also described as adjusting to quantitative tightening and weaker reserve-manager demand, while convenience yield and stock-bond hedging benefits have declined.
According to State Street, US investors drove a major dollar sell-off in the first half of last year by cutting FX hedge ratios from about 25 per cent at the start of 2025 to a little above 12 per cent, which the article describes as more than halving. A 2024 note by Marc Seidner and Pramol Dhawan of Pimco is cited: structurally short US public sector versus private sector, with the opposite in Europe; equity exposure in the US and debt exposure in Europe. The UBS Global Investment Returns Year Book (Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton) is cited as showing bond drawdowns have historically been larger and/or longer than equity drawdowns, and the US bond drawdown from July 2020 is said to have produced a 51 per cent real loss.