伊朗冲突、AI 冲击与信贷压力在同一周同时发酵，令市场情绪转向悲观。3 月 10 日（周一）开盘时，油价一度接近每桶 120 美元，股指期货下跌；当天晚间 Donald Trump 表示冲突「很快」可结束后，油价回落至 90 美元以下，S&P 500 创下近一个月最大单日反弹。然而，无论宣传是否改变了预期，市场已面临一种「长尾」冲击：AI 技术的范围扩张、非银行贷款中拨款风险、就业疲弱，以及持续高通胀都叠加在一起，令原有「逢低买入」公式失效。VIX 曾短暂超过 35，接近年初的一倍以上；债券波动指标同步上升。美国主要指数在 2026 年上半年的交易日中，超过半数出现至少 1% 的日内波动，若持续将带来自 2022 年以来最剧烈的波动阶段。

能源端是最直接的压力来源。霍尔木兹海峡日通运量约 2,000 万桶（约 3.2 百万立方米），有效关闭使全球运输与供应链面临严重干扰；沙乌地等国减产后，布伦特油价一度升至 119 美元以上，约为1月初的两倍，并创下当日高点到收盘的最大跌幅纪录。即便油价回落，成本传导已经开始：能源密集型产业（制造、航空、物流、半导体封测）利润被压缩、消费者可支配所得受限。亚洲与欧洲因能源进口依赖高而受创更重，加上美国 2 月非农意外回落，市场担忧通胀再起与经济放缓同时出现（类似滞胀）。伦敦市场曾短期转向几乎 0.25 个百分点加息预期，欧洲债市亦一度消化两次欧洲央行升息。

第三重震荡来自信用。近两兆美元规模的 private credit 市场中，美国私募信贷 12 个月违约率在 2026 年 1 月高达 5.8%，是 Fitch 自 2024 年 8 月追踪以来最高；垃圾债利差自 1 月低点已抬升 0.5 个百分点。这显示高杠杆、尤其是软体与AI相关资产的资本市场承压。外资上周抽离新兴亚洲（不含中国）股票，当地货币在美元走强下被压。当前困境是多重且缺乏单一政策解药：战争使再融资成本与通胀预期抬头，延后降息、放大流动性压力。Ocean Park Asset Management 的 James St. Aubin 对现有行情的回应是「保留现金」，并指出在极端风险环境，Treasuries 也未必是绝对避险。Matt Maley 指出，市场估值偏高，历史上比 1970 年代油危机、2000 年网路泡沫或 2008 年信贷危机更小的冲击，也可能在当前条件下引发更大连锁反应。

By Monday, market sentiment had turned sharply risk-off as the Iran conflict, AI disruption and credit stress converged at once. Oil briefly rose close to $120 per barrel and stock futures fell, then after Donald Trump suggested the war might end soon, oil retreated below $90 and the S&P 500 posted its biggest one-day rebound in a month. Yet the Iran attack shock remains, and investors are now facing a broader set of pressures: AI restructuring of business models, rising private-credit stress, weaker U.S. labor data, and sticky inflation that may delay or reverse expected rate cuts. Gregory Faranello warned the old “buy-the-dip” framework is gone. The VIX briefly exceeded 35, more than double its early-year level, and S&P 500 intraday moves of at least 1% have occurred on more than half of trading days this year so far, a pace consistent with unusually high volatility since 2022.

The oil channel is the most immediate. The Strait of Hormuz, carrying about 20 million barrels per day (roughly 3.2 million cubic meters per day), has been effectively shut, and with Saudi Arabia and others cutting output, Brent oil briefly exceeded $119—about twice early-January levels. It also marked the largest drop from an intraday high to close in history. Even as prices retreated, higher transport and manufacturing energy costs are already squeezing airlines, logistics firms, and consumer-facing companies that cannot quickly pass through costs. Pressure is particularly acute in Asia and Europe, where energy import dependence is higher and markets already suffered the sharpest losses. Meanwhile, already softening global activity plus an unexpected decline in U.S. February payrolls fueled stagflation fears; UK traders even briefly shifted from expecting two rate cuts to pricing almost a 25-basis-point hike, while euro-area markets briefly reflected two possible ECB hikes.

On top of this, AI has widened fragility in credit channels. The nearly $2 trillion private-credit market shows signs of strain: Fitch reports U.S. private-credit defaults at 5.8% for the 12 months through January, the highest since tracking began in August 2024; corporate junk spreads are up 0.5 percentage point from January lows. Foreign investors pulled billions from emerging Asian equities (excluding China), while stronger U.S. dollar conditions pressured local currencies in AI-dependent, energy-intensive economies. Higher energy costs also raise borrower expenses, while delayed rate-cut expectations reduce refinancing flexibility and liquidity. Some managers are de-risking or moving to cash; James St. Aubin said Treasuries are not guaranteed safe in this regime. As Matt Maley notes, after a long bull market, a much smaller shock can now trigger outsized market dysfunction.