Adamas Intelligence 预期，用于汽车、机器人等的钕铁硼（neodymium-iron-boron）永磁体需求，仅美国市场在通往2035年的十年内将增加至5倍。北京对部分稀土出口的限制（去年）使竞逐升温；美国以多种方式加码，包括取得内华达州 MP Materials 的股权，并与他国达成供应协议。London 上市公司 Rainbow Rare Earths 的执行长 George Bennett 表示，2025年对稀土是「巨大的」一年，并将西方注意力的聚焦归因于 Trump 与贸易战，核心讯息是关键矿物不应由单一国家主导。
Project Blue 估算，到2030年，中国在稀土精炼的全球占比将由接近90%降至低于80%，在全球矿产供给的控制力将由接近70%降至约60%。Fastmarkets 的 Caroline Messecar 指出，短缺使企业高层与政府更重视供应链脆弱性，情境已从「多付一些」转向「任何价格都可能买不到」。案例包括澳洲的 Northern Minerals 与 Arafura Rare Earths 规划于未来几年上线；Rainbow 在南非开发的矿场于11月表示可生产受中国出口管制影响的重稀土元素钇（yttrium），George Bennett 称消息发布后1周内即接到全球最大航太制造商之一来电，讨论潜在销售与「price floor」（保证最低价格）。
Trade tensions between Beijing and Washington are accelerating buyers’ efforts to source rare earths outside China. Adamas Intelligence says more than 30 projects are set for production this decade, including 33 “advanced” projects expected to start operating within five years across regions such as Europe, Africa, and Australia. Tracking more than 300 rare earth projects globally, Adamas reports a large influx of public and private funding into the sector, while emphasizing that new mines are expensive, risky, and time consuming, slowing near-term substitution.
Adamas Intelligence expects US demand for neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets used in cars and robotics to rise fivefold over the decade to 2035. The race intensified last year after Beijing imposed export restrictions on some rare earths, and the US increased countermeasures, including taking a stake in Nevada-based MP Materials and striking supply deals with other nations. George Bennett, chief executive of London-listed Rainbow Rare Earths, called 2025 a massive year for rare earths and credited Trump and trade wars with concentrating western attention on the risks of one-country dominance in a critical mineral.
Project Blue estimates that by 2030 China’s share of global rare earths refining will drop from almost 90% to less than 80%, while its control of global mined supply declines from almost 70% to about 60%. Fastmarkets’ Caroline Messecar links shortages to heightened C-suite and government focus on supply-chain fragility, shifting the risk from paying more to being unable to buy material at any price. Examples include Australia’s Northern Minerals and Arafura Rare Earths aiming to bring projects online, and Rainbow’s South Africa mine saying in November it can produce yttrium; Bennett said that within a week a major aerospace manufacturer called to discuss a potential purchase and a price floor, a guaranteed minimum price.