华尔街对2026年的主基调是“温和乐观”：彭博汇总了60多家机构、700多条观点，几乎一致认为AI资本开支将延长周期并支撑风险资产。多数预测全球GDP增速接近长期趋势，约2.6%–3.1%（例如2.7%于2026、2.8%于2027），美国多在约1.5%–2.6%，中国多在约4%–5%。有观点称AI投资对美国增长的贡献约为历史平均的3倍，并将在2026年延续，同时劳动市场逐步降温。

通胀被描述为“粘性下行”：美国通胀常被置于约3%附近（核心PCE到2026年末约2.5%–3.3%），意味着降息空间有限且节奏可能慢于市场预期。多家机构把2026年末联邦基金利率的中枢放在约3.0%–3.75%（也有3.25%–3.5%区间），欧洲存款利率被提到约1.5%–2%，英国政策利率约3%，日本可能升至约1.25%。衰退概率分歧明显（约20%–35%），而关税被视为“新常态”，并被提及每年带来接近3000亿美元收入且存在最高法院不确定性。

资产回报预期上限更清晰：估值偏高、信用利差极紧，使得“更高但更颠簸”的股票路径成为共识。对标普500的年末目标从约7,100到8,000不等，亦有7,750–7,800的基准情形；少数给出约30%概率的AI泡沫情景指向9,000。相对收益也被量化：例如未来12个月标普约+14%，对比日本TOPIX约+7%、MSCI欧洲约+4%。同时提醒集中度风险：标普自ChatGPT发布以来累计上涨超80%，其中近四分之三的涨幅由AI相关股票贡献，因此建议分散到AI采用者、非美市场与新兴市场（如EM科技相对美国约40%折价）。

Wall Street’s 2026 base case is “modestly optimistic”: Bloomberg compiled outlooks from 60+ institutions and 700+ calls, and the near-universal view is that AI capex extends the cycle and supports risk assets. Most see global GDP running near trend at about 2.6%–3.1% (for example 2.7% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027), with the US often around 1.5%–2.6% and China around 4%–5%. One view puts AI investment’s contribution to US growth at roughly 3x its historical average, persisting through 2026 as the labor market cools.

Inflation is framed as a “sticky slide”: US inflation is frequently placed near ~3% (core PCE about 2.5%–3.3% by end-2026), implying limited room to cut and a slower pace than markets price. Many cluster the fed funds rate around ~3.0%–3.75% by end-2026 (including 3.25%–3.5%), with the ECB cited near ~1.5%–2%, the BOE near ~3%, and the BOJ potentially rising toward ~1.25%. Recession odds vary widely (~20%–35%), while tariffs are treated as a “new normal,” including references to nearly $300B in annual revenue and Supreme Court uncertainty.

Return optimism has clearer ceilings: elevated valuations and extremely tight credit spreads point to “higher but choppier” equities. S&P 500 year-end targets span roughly 7,100 to 8,000, with 7,750–7,800 as a common base case; a minority assigns ~30% odds to an AI-bubble path toward 9,000. Relative return calls are explicit: e.g., ~+14% for the S&P over 12 months versus ~+7% for TOPIX and ~+4% for MSCI Europe. Concentration is the key risk: the S&P is up 80%+ since ChatGPT’s launch, with AI-linked names driving nearly three-quarters of that gain, so diversification toward adopters, non-US, and EM (e.g., EM tech ~40% cheaper than US) is repeatedly urged.