这篇文章指出，特朗普的“男子气概”形象曾给他提供持续优势，许多选民仍把共和党视作“爸爸式”强势政党，且美国人称“共和党更像男性党”的概率几乎是称“民主党”的7倍。特朗普通过好斗、胜利与越界叙事强化这种气质；他三次竞选都在男性选民中得利，并且面对女性对手时通常获胜，研究还显示2024年投票后男性自报的“男性化感”上升。
年轻男性支持正在转折：2024年18—29岁男性中有49%支持特朗普，但哈佛/IOP民调显示现在仅有28%认可他。年轻男性更看重就业、购房、成家等现实目标（例如在NBC民调中“要有孩子”是其首要人生目标），而贸易壁垒和伊朗战争推高生活成本，使“男子气概”难以抵消账单压力。
投票结构同样出现摇摆：在一次相关民调中，18—29岁男性有33%倾向11月投民主党、25%倾向共和党、38%表示不确定或不投票；这是年轻男性明显变成关键摆动群体。另一项民调显示54%认为民主党存在反男性偏见，而26%对男性持否定看法的民主党支持者比例，是共和党5%支持者的5倍。
The article argues that Trump’s masculinity image once gave him an edge, with Americans almost seven times more likely to describe Republicans as the “party of men” than Democrats, and with voters long associating Republicans with a “daddy” style on defense and toughness. Across three campaigns, he mobilized men strongly, often won overall against female challengers, and a Fairleigh Dickinson study reported men feeling “more masculine” after voting for him in 2023/2024 context.
The gap is narrowing among men ages 18–29: 49% voted for him in 2024, while only 28% approve of him in a later Harvard/IOP poll, with practical pressures around jobs, housing, relationships, and family formation outweighing image politics. In that same polling environment, 33% said they would back a Democrat in November, 25% a Republican, and 38% said they were undecided or would not vote, making this cohort highly volatile.
Housing and cost pressures are a key structural driver, reinforced by policy externalities: a 10% local rent increase is associated with about a 1.1 percentage-point rise in non-college men living with parents and a 0.5 percentage-point drop in labor-force participation, enough to explain roughly one-third of their employment decline since 2000. Goldman Sachs estimates that if zoning were as permissive as the least restrictive quarter of U.S. cities, about two-thirds of the national housing shortfall would disappear, which could reshape male voting behavior; meanwhile Democrats are beginning targeted responses for young men, while Trump is set to mark his 80th birthday in June with a White House lawn cage-fighting spectacle during America’s 250th anniversary.
Source: Young men are souring on Donald Trump
Subtitle: But can Democrats win them over?
Dateline: 5月 07, 2026 06:27 上午 | Charlottesville and Flowery Branch