全球股市估值在二十余年间从约30万亿美元上升到约150万亿美元，并在最近八个月内额外增加约30万亿美元。2000年被视为典型泡沫案例的 Pets.com 曾估值3亿美元，而当下的 Chewy.com 估值约140亿美元。历史数据显示，股价从上涨到下跌通常不会造成系统性伤害：加密货币市场已有1万亿美元市值蒸发却无外溢危机；2000年股灾后的2001年衰退实际GDP仅萎缩0.3%。
今年的股市涨幅并非主要由美国巨型科技公司驱动。S&P 500 上涨16%，但英国 FTSE 上涨27%，香港恒生上涨30%，巴西 Ibovespa 上涨33%，西班牙 Ibex 上涨42%。同时，全球经济表现稳健：印度GDP同比增长8.2%，OECD预测2026年全球主要地区皆维持正增长。即便面对相当于二战以来最大贸易冲击的关税压力，全球增长仍呈韧性，显示底层结构强健。
2009年开始的全球去风险化与 Basel III 改革显著降低了银行系统性风险。风险资产如加密货币、AI 与私人信贷虽具波动性，但其投资者普遍理解风险性质，且并无证据表明投入无法承受损失的资本。资金避险渠道依旧稳固，货币市场基金规模已达8万亿美元。即便经历2020年全球疫情，长期增长轨迹依旧保持，使被动持有多元化股票组合的策略展现高度韧性，并暗示未来可能延续同样趋势。
Global stock-market capitalization rose from roughly $30 trillion in 2000 to about $150 trillion today, with an additional $30 trillion added in less than eight months. Pets.com, once valued at $300 million at the 2000 bubble peak, pales beside Chewy.com’s current $14 billion valuation. Historically, equity swings seldom trigger systemic crises: crypto has lost $1 trillion in value with minimal spillover, and the 2000 crash produced a mild 2001 recession with GDP contracting only 0.3%.
This year’s equity gains are not concentrated solely in US megacap tech. The S&P 500 is up 16%, while Britain’s FTSE is up 27%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng 30%, Brazil’s Ibovespa 33%, and Spain’s Ibex 42%. Meanwhile, the real economy remains strong: India’s GDP grew 8.2% year over year, and the OECD projects positive 2026 growth across all major regions. Even the largest trade shock since World War II has not derailed global resilience, indicating robust structural fundamentals.
Post-2009 derisking and Basel III reforms meaningfully reduced systemic banking risk. Volatile assets such as crypto, AI, and private credit remain risky, but investors generally understand that risk, and evidence of overextended capital is scant. Safe assets continue attracting inflows, with money-market funds reaching $8 trillion. Even the 2020 pandemic failed to disrupt medium-term global growth, reinforcing the durability of diversified equity buy-and-hold strategies and suggesting continuity rather than rupture ahead.